Page 27 - Food Outlook

and the Black Sea origins averaged some 20 percent above October 2016, while sorghum quotations (US Gulf) were up 10 percent from last year.
Turning to the futures markets, the CBOT maize futures for delivery in December 2017, the benchmark delivery month for the new US crop, averaged USD 138 per tonne
in October, down 10 percent from the start of the season but almost at par with the same period last year. Large
world supplies and the favourable weather over the summer period which improved yield prospects, especially in the United States, contributed to a sharp decline in maize futures from their one-year high at the beginning of the season. Stiffer competition among the major exporters also limited the upside. More detailed analysis of the futures markets can be found in the Market Indicators section of this report.
PRODUCTION
Global production of coarse grains to reach a record in 2017
FAO forecasts global coarse grains production in 2017
to reach 1359.7 million tonnes, 13.4 million tonnes, or 1.0 percent, higher than the previous year marking a new record high. The annual growth is mainly driven by strong recoveries in maize production in Southern Africa and South America that more than outweighed a large production cut in the United States.
Global maize production in 2017 is forecast at
1 063.6 million tonnes, 22.9 million tonnes, or 2.2 percent, higher than the previous year.
In the United States, improved weather conditions in the latter part of the season resulted in higher than expected
Figure 3. Maize production in Southern Africa - leading producers
yields, triggering an upward revision of the production forecast that now stands at 362.7 million tonnes, although still 6 percent down from the previous year. The yearly decrease stems from a contraction in plantings that more than offset the positive impact of above-average yields. In Canada, in contrast to a subdued early-season production outlook, the latest estimate puts the 2017 output at a record high of 13.6 million tonnes, reflecting above-average yields and a larger planted area.
In Europe, drier weather in southern parts of the EU dampened yields prospects and in combination with a decrease in overall plantings, maize production in 2017 is forecast to fall by 2 percent to 60 million tonnes. Similarly, yields are estimated to fall in Ukraine, pushing this year’s maize output to 26.7 million tonnes, down 5 percent from 2016. In the Russian Federation, the maize output is also forecast to decline by 9 percent from the record high of 2016 to 14 million tonnes. Dry weather conditions in the summer and excessive rainfall during the harvest period are the main factors driving the decrease.
In Asia, aggregate production in 2017 is forecast
to fall. Most of this decline is associated with China, where a lower maize procurement price established by the government triggered a contraction in plantings
and resulted in an output of 212.5 million tonnes,
down 3 percent from 2016. Elsewhere in Asia, maize production in 2017 is expected to remain close to the previous year’s levels, except in Indonesia, where robust demand from the domestic feed industry spurred an expansion in plantings, causing production to increase by 1.5 million tonnes to reach an overall level of
21.5 million tonnes.
In the Southern Hemisphere, harvesting of the bulk of the 2017 crop is complete.
In South America, production in Brazil is estimated at 99.4 million tonnes, 57 percent above the drought-reduced output of 2016 and a record high. The sharp rebound is driven by higher yields for both the first and second season crops, and a larger planted area. Argentina also registered a record output of 49.5 million tonnes. An expansion in the sown area, instigated by high prices and by good weather, which also helped boost yields, has driven this year’s increase.
In Southern Africa, good weather raised yield levels above previous year’s levels, and higher prices encouraged an increase in plantings in South Africa, supporting a record output of 17.5 million tonnes, more than double the drought-affected production of 2016. Similarly, favourable weather conditions in the neighbouring countries of Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe resulted in strong production rebounds this year.
million tonnes 20
16 12 8 4 0
2013 2014
South Africa Zambia
2015 2016 2017 Malawi estim. f’cast
Others
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
21
COARSE GRAINS