Page 44 - Food Outlook

have put ethanol at a competitive disadvantage and, where mandatory blending rates are in force, competition among agricultural feedstocks for energy conversion is fierce. However, in China, the largest utilizer of cassava in ethanol production, a resurgence in imports of cassava-based feedstocks in the latter half of the year could see energy applications of cassava on the rise in 2017.
Based on analysis in countries that have established markets for cassava feedstuffs, the global use of cassava as an animal feed could also fall in 2017, where it is in direct competition with other feeding stuffs, particularly maize, and where annual supplies are expected to fall, such as in Brazil. Thailand could partake in this tendency, given the prospect of low cassava availabilities in the country.
TRADE
Cassava trade in 2017 unchanged
At just under 22 million tonnes (chip and pellet weight equivalent), the volume of world trade in cassava in 2017 is expected to match the levels of the two preceding years. Mostly confined to East and Southeast Asia, international flows of cassava are hugely contingent on industrial and feed demand for the product, particularly from China, and on the competitiveness of Thai exports. The importance
of the two countries in shaping international trade is noteworthy, with China typically accounting for two-thirds of world imports, and Thailand for around 70 percent of world exports.
A policy change in China last year that began promoting the increased use of domestic substitutes, principally
maize from stockpiles, has had little influence on cassava inflows to the country in 2017. After falling to a multi-year low in January, internal maize prices have been steadily rising throughout the year in China on the back of supply disruptions, according imported cassava products with improved competitiveness. International demand for cassava flour/starch, commonly referred to as tapioca,
is expected to attain new heights in 2017, with flows reaching almost 10 million tonnes (chip and pellet weight equivalent). Based on the annual pace of shipments to date, once again Thailand is expected to dominate tapioca export market, where demand in China could rise by as much as 25 percent to a record 5 million tonnes. Purchases in 2017 by Japan, the Taiwan Provence of China and Malaysia are also expected to increase, albeit moderately. On the other hand, shipments to Indonesia – the second largest market for starch – could fall by as much as
25 percent to around 1 million tonnes.
As for cassava chips and pellets, growth in trade is
forecast to be less vibrant in 2017, reaching just short of
Table 3. World exports of cassava (product weight of chips and pellets)
2013
17 403 7 769 6 686
730 3 350
9 634
Thailand
Viet Nam
Cambodia 671 Others 180
2014 2015
000 tonnes
2016
21 765 9 749 8 446 1 055
64
183
12 016
6 411 3 241 2 182
181
2017
21 848 9 888 8 600 1 048
120
92
11 960
6 400 3 200 2 210
150
2017
17 085 9 440
980 5 180 700
1 000 600 980
7 645
7 075 260 310
Total
Flour and Starch Thailand
Viet Nam Cambodia
Others
Chips and Pellets
19 948 9 068 7 919
788 29 333
10 880
6 927 2 995 808 150
22 061 9 040 7 657 1 011
56
316
13 021
7 458 3 607 1 805
150
6 006 2 776
Table 4. Thai trade in cassava (product weight of chips and pellets)
2013
14 829 6 786
2014 2015
000 tonnes
2016
16 808 8 545
Total
Flour and Starch
Total
Japan China
Chinese Provence of Taiwan
Indonesia Malaysia
Others
Chips and Pellets Total
China
South Korea
Others 77
17 404 8 228
916 3 813 675
888
525 1 412
9 176
8 651 517 9
17 996 8 282
851 3 640 648
1 256 586 1 302
9 713
9 376 310 27
Source: Thai Tapioca Trade Association (TTTA), FAO
2
1
872 843 660
647 436 329
4
1
884 147 655
339 580 940
8 042
8 263
7 705 323 235
7 388 577
Figure 5. World trade in cassava products (chip and pellet equivalent)
million tonnes 24
18
12
6
0
2011 2012 2013
Flour and Starch
2014 2015
2016 2017 estim. f’cast
Chips and Pellets
38
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Market assessments