Page 43 - Food Outlook

have targeted cassava as a substitute for rice, which both countries import heavily. In Indonesia, however, the sector remains subdued. With exceptionally low root prices at the start of the season, lower plantings will likely limit the prospect of any output growth. The country is expected to gather a crop of around 20 million tonnes in 2017, slightly lower than last year, but some 4 million tonnes short of the levels registered at the beginning of the decade. In the Philippines, based on the pace of the harvest for the first six months of the year, cassava output is expected to reach 2.8 million tonnes in 2017, marginally above the level of 2016.
In South Asia, cassava plays a role in food security in India, particularly in the major growing states of Kerala (consumption of fresh roots) and Tamil Naidu (starch for food manufacturing). Combined, the two states account for 98 percent of national output. At around 4.6 million tonnes, officials foresee production largely unchanged from last year, and less than half of the record crop that was harvested in 2009. Cassava output is on a gradual decline in India, as farmers are opting to cultivate more remunerative crops, such as rubber, black pepper and coffee.
The cassava production outlook for Latin America
and the Caribbean points to a significant contraction
in 2017. Led by Brazil, the region’s principal producer, drought at the beginning of the season has lowered plantings considerably, resulting in an officially forecast crop of 20.1 million tonnes, a decline of 15 percent
or 3.6 million tonnes from last year. This is in spite of higher market prices for root as well as an increase in the minimum price in 2017.
Concerning the region’s other sizable producing countries, Paraguay and Colombia, higher prices at the beginning of the season are expected to have sustained production in 2017, while in Peru, conducive policy and favourable growing conditions could lift cassava production in 2017.
UTILIZATION
Lower food availability drives cassava utilization down in 2017
Cassava is utilized in a multitude of ways. Food constitutes the major end use of the crop, but local and regional markets for animal feed, industrial use and energy feature prominently. Assessing the levels of uptake by different markets is virtually impossible, as again, little concerted effort is made at the country level to assess utilization. On the other hand, because cassava roots are highly perishable once harvested, they are utilized almost entirely within the crop year, making market assessments somewhat easier.
Cassava is mainly utilized as a foodstuff. As a staple, the root crop has little importance in the global diet (typically around 20 kg per capita per year in fresh root equivalent) owing to its perishability and bulkiness which preclude its widespread trade. However, cassava has major dietary significance in the tropical areas where it is grown. This is particularly evident in sub-Saharan Africa, where cassava is an important dietary staple in root form, but also in processed form. Indeed, fermented and non-fermented granulated and flour-based cassava products have become established forms of consumption of the staple in the region, where many countries have launched value-addition initiatives in the cassava food chain, promoting the rural economy and helping meet rising dietary needs.
In a similar vein, measures to promote added-value cassava at the expense of imported staples are also
active. Nigeria, for example, continues to encourage
the processing of cassava into flour as a substitute for wheat in making bread, in order to enable the country to curb its high dependency on imported wheat. The policy objective to reduce by half wheat imports by 2018 requires the mandatory blending of wheat flour with cassava
flour. While the policy should act as a growth stimulus
for Nigeria’s cassava production and processing sectors, domestic cassava prices are reported to have increased significantly on the back of scarcity of the raw material, and the country’s wheat imports are still expected to reach a record in 2017. Pressure in Ghana for policy-makers to instil a 10 percent mandatory cassava-wheat flour blending ratio is gathering momentum, and is deemed feasible, given the low quantities of wheat that the country currently imports.
Since non-food markets for cassava are of little significance in sub-Saharan Africa, production levels effectively translate into levels of food availability in the region. As a result, per capita food availability is estimated at approximately 105 kg in fresh root equivalent in 2017, down 2.3 percent from last year. The prospective sizeable fall in per capita food availability stems from negligible production growth in 2017, mainly in Nigeria, coupled with extremely robust population growth in the subregion.
Cassava also features prominently in diets in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially in Brazil, where the blending of cassava flour with wheat flour is mandatory. Likewise, in south Asia (India) and Southeast Asia (Indonesia and Philippines), cassava is widely consumed as food. However, as non-food markets for cassava are also well established in these regions, it is difficult to assess precise changes in utilization for direct human consumption.
Demand for cassava as a raw material in the energy sector, particularly in East and Southeast Asia, is likely to increase. Generally, falling gasoline prices in Southeast Asia
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
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CASSAVA