Page 41 - Food Outlook

Figure 1. International cassava and Thai domestic prices (Oct 2014 - Oct 2017)
Table 2. World cassava production
USD per tonne 500
400
300
200
100
2014 2015
Flour/Starch
(Super High Grade f.o.b. Bangkok)
Chips to China
(f.o.b. Bangkok)
2016 2017
2014
276 766 154 900 56 328 16 817 16 524 7 639 12 700 4 993 2 812 5 013 4 067 4 836 3 117 2 930 4 239 12 885
32 334
23 254 3 000 2 186 3 894
89 365
30 022
23 436
10 210 8 139 4 593 7 933 2 540 2 490
249
2015 2016*
(000 tonnes)
2017**
277 957 155 962 55 000 14 550 19 139 7 140 10 920 5 500 2 450 5 050 4 150 5 345 3 200 2 700 5 367 15 451
29 407
20 110 3 168 2 125 4 004
92 418
30 936
20 330
10 650 4 645 5 000
14 820 2 825 3 212
247
Figure 2. China maize and Thai cassava chips prices (Oct 2014 - Oct 2017)
World
Africa
Nigeria
Congo, Democratic Republic of Ghana
Angola
Mozambique
Tanzania, United Republic of Uganda
Malawi
Benin
Cameroon
Rwanda
Madagascar
Côte d'Ivoire
Other Africa
Latin America
Brazil
Paraguay
Colombia
Other Latin America
Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Viet Nam
India
China, mainland Cambodia Philippines Other Asia
Oceania
* Estimate ** Forecast
276 995 152 833 57 643 15 300 17 213 7 727 8 103 5 886 2 898 4 997 3 421 5 000 3 000 2 677 5 087 13 881
32 299
23 060 3 000 2 092 4 147
91 689
32 358
21 801
10 740 4 373 4 500
11 944 2 711 3 261
252
278 754 155 398 57 855 15 200 17 798 7 788 9 100 6 000 2 400 5 000 4 096 5 170 3 060 2 629 4 548 14 753
32 908
23 710 3 167 2 117 3 914
90 274
31 161
20 745
10 201 4 421 4 548
13 298 2 755 3 145
252
USD per tonne 500
400 300 200
100
2014 2015
2016 2017
Maize (China Dalian, nearby futures) Chips to China (f.o.b Bangkok)
Figure 3. Thai root producer prices (Oct 2014 - Oct 2017)
in import demand for domestic maize substitutes has given some support to cassava prices.
PRODUCTION
Global cassava production to fall in 2017
After two decades of uninterrupted growth, world
cassava production is forecast to undergo a slight contraction in 2017, dropping to 278 million tonnes, around 1 million tonnes lower than the level of last year. Hitherto, cassava held the status of being one of the fastest expanding staple crops at the global level, registering annual average growth well above 3 percent over the past decade, but a combination of policy changes, depressed root prices and adverse weather in the major producing countries was behind lower plantings and consequently lower harvest prospects for 2017.
USD per tonne 90
70
50
30
2014 2015
2016 2017
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
35
CASSAVA