Page 42 - Food Outlook

Figure 4. World production of cassava
important producing countries in West Africa, especially Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon and Sierra Leone where, owing to good weather, either all-time high or near- high harvests are anticipated.
Cassava’s tolerance to erratic weather conditions spares production from considerable contraction – compared to other crops – has put cassava expansion high on the agendas of many governments in eastern and southern African countries. In Angola, Burundi, United Republic of Tanzania and Uganda drought has marred 2017 production prospects to some degree, while better growing conditions
in Madagascar and Rwanda are expected to lift production back to trend levels, with Mozambique officially forecast
to gather a record crop of almost 11 million tonnes, some 20 percent higher than in 2016. In central Africa, ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the subregion’s largest producer, could spell yet another large- scale contraction in cassava output.
In Asia, industrial demand for cassava in the ethanol, starch and animal feed sectors, and their lucrative export markets, have underpinned a strong expansion of the
crop in the past decade, particularly in Southeast Asia.
The 2017 cassava production for the entire continent is forecast to recover from last year, rising by 2 percent to a record of 92 million tonnes. This is in spite of a cessation of output growth in Thailand, Asia’s largest producer. At the beginning of the season, low root prices and favourable weather conducive to competing crops prompted a shift from cassava, resulting in a fall in Thailand’s cassava acreage. Official sources point to an output level of
31 million tonnes in 2017, around 1 percent lower than last year. The decline would have been more pronounced had it not been for an improvement in yields.
Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, cassava output in China is forecast to rise to around 5 million tonnes, on account of good weather. However, the country largely sources
its cassava needs in processed form (mainly dry chips
and flour) from Thailand and neighbouring countries, namely Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic
and Viet Nam, where it has engaged in efforts to secure long-term supplies from them. Of all these countries, only Cambodia’s production is expected to increase significantly in 2017. According to official reports, the country is anticipated to gather a record crop of some
15 million tonnes, 11 percent more than in 2016. Buoyed by rising regional demand, the expansion of cassava cultivation in Cambodia has been remarkable, increasing almost twice-fold in the space of three years.
By contrast, in Indonesia and the Philippines, cassava is more important for food security than for industry. Dietary diversification programmes in the two countries
million tonnes 300
200
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0
2011 2012 2013
Latin America
2014 2015
Asia
2016 2017 estim. f’cast
Africa
Forecasting cassava production is difficult, owing to the widespread lack of data on harvest expectations and negligible information on planting intentions. Even in countries where the crop is known to play a critical role in food security and rural development, or where its trade carries importance, little effort is made to regularly survey the crop, as is done for other staple crops. This holds especially true in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the world’s largest cassava growing region. Nevertheless, with rising demand for the staple and with enhancing food security and the rural economy high on the agenda of the region, 2017 cassava production in SSA could reach a record
156 million tonnes, around 0.6 million tonnes more than the level of 2016.
The crop is the subject of many expansion programmes in the region, as commercializing cassava and domestically producing staple crops – in order to limit imports – remains a key objective of many West African governments. In Nigeria, the regional production leader, the “Anchor Borrower’s Programme” (ABP), initiated by the country’s central bank, provides preferential loans to smallholder farmers who provide their product to the processing sector. However, while cassava is one of the many commodities listed in the programme, the implementation of ABP has,
in effect, made rice more lucrative to cultivate and led
to farmers shifting out of cassava. As a result, Nigeria’s cassava crop is set to contract by 5 percent from last year to 55 million tonnes in 2017.
Supported by favourable growing conditions and an enabling environment for investment, cassava production in Ghana, the region’s second largest cassava producer, could rise by 8 percent to a record 19 million tonnes in 2017. Current year prospects also remain positive in other
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FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Market assessments