Page 66 - Food Outlook

FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS
GLOBAL FISH ECONOMY
According to the latest forecasts, global production
of fish and fishery products is expected to expand by
2.3 percent in 2017, a faster growth rate than last year. This acceleration is primarily accounted for by a recovery in catches of anchoveta in South America following the end of El Niño and by a further expansion of aquaculture production, which continues to rise at some 4–5 percent a year. Although this growth is expected to slow gradually in the longer term, this year’s OECD-FAO projections
Figure 1. The FAO Fish Price Index (2002-2004=100)
180 155 130 105
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FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Major Exporters Major Importers
estimate that aquaculture will be the world’s primary source of fish for all purposes within five years, while the proportion of fish utilized for human consumption supplied by aquaculture will also continue to rise. Both production and consumption growth will be increasingly driven by developing countries, particularly those in Asia, a region whose already considerable importance as a producer and market will only continue to grow.
In 2017, despite higher production, the demand stimulus resulting from improving economic conditions worldwide has lifted prices for many important seafood commodities. As a result, the total value of world exports is expected to rise by some 8 percent this year in US dollar terms, building on a similar increase in 2016. Higher prices for salmon, shrimp, tuna, cod, cephalopods and some small pelagic species have boosted export revenues for many large producers, particularly India, Norway and a number of Central and South American countries. The FAO Fish Price Index was 10 points higher in August, the most recent available month, with all commodity groups higher than the same month in 2016. On the market side, the most important individual contributors to trade value growth are China, the United States, the EU and Japan. The economic revival of Brazil and the Russian Federation, two large emerging markets, will represent an additional boost to aggregate seafood demand if it continues into 2018 and beyond.
OECD-FAO projections published in 2017 anticipate accelerating world GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 after
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2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
FAO total fish price index
Aquaculture Total
Source: Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC)
Capture total
Major Exporters and Importers of Fish and Fishery Products
Market assessments