Page 68 - Food Outlook

has affected harvests. India, Viet Nam and Thailand should see increased production, and in Argentina, a bumper catch of wild shrimp has been reported for 2017 with landings totalling 139 000 tonnes, 34.7 percent higher than last year. November to March is the low farming season in Asia, and overall availability of raw material will be limited until the new season in Asia begins in April 2018. The positive import trend in Japan is likely to continue through the year-end celebration into early 2018. Year-end is also one of the high consumption periods for shrimp in the United States, but the effects of the hurricanes, together with weaker overall demand, stagnant inventories and increased imports may mean lower prices in the coming months. In the EU, prices for Ecuadorian shrimp can be expected to fall if there is a weakening of interest from East Asian buyers.
TUNA
Due to low inventories of raw material at canneries in Thailand and Ecuador, demand for frozen skipjack is likely to increase in the coming months. However, the catch outlook remains unclear until after the fish aggregating device (FAD) and “veda” fishing bans in the Pacific Ocean are lifted in October. As of September, the delivery price
of frozen skipjack to Thailand had crossed USD 2 000 per tonne, and if landings do not improve in the last quarter of 2017, particularly in the Pacific Ocean, prices may increase further. On the market side, imports of canned tuna in the US market are likely to improve during early 2018, as buyers take advantage of the annual import quota for canned tuna at the lower tariff rate. In the EU, importers will continue
to depend on and favour Ecuador and the Philippines due to their duty-free status to this market. Meanwhile, canned
Figure 3. Thailand exports tuna canned
Figure 4. Prices skipjack: Thailand
USD per tonne
2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000
500 0
Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: 4 lb/pc & up, CFR Bangkok, origin: Western Pacific Source: INFOFISH Trade News
tuna producers in Thailand and Indonesia are focusing more on emerging markets as exports to the EU and United States are trending downwards, although the EU remains the economically logical choice for Ecuador for the time being. Overall, any further rise in raw material prices can be expected to have a negative impact on consumer demand for canned tuna worldwide.
GROUNDFISH
According to figures presented at the Groundfish Forum 2017, total global groundfish supplies, excluding Northern Blue Whiting, are forecast to fall by some 3 percent
in 2018. The Barents Sea cod quota is expected to be reduced, with the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recommending a 20 percent cut in
the 2018 quota. While such a cut may appear drastic, researchers are confident that the long-term outlook is very positive. The Joint Russian Federation-Norwegian Fisheries Commission, which will set the final quotas in November, is expected to take a cautionary approach, and some price increases can be expected as a consequence. In the pollock market, demand is increasing in Asia, North America and Europe, aided by the high prices for cod brought on by
the supply shortage. Overall, pollock prices are expected to edge upwards, as will cod prices, which most likely will continue their upward trend. Meanwhile, the market for surimi also appears to be picking up. It is expected that there will be a general shortage of surimi this year, as production is stagnant and demand is increasing, both in Japan and on the US market.
thousand tonnes
250 200 150 100
50
0 2015
USA
Other
countries
Source: Thai Customs
2016
Australia
thousand tonnes
300 280 260 240 220
2017 200
Japan
Total exports (right axis)
62
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
Market assessments