Page 86 - Food Outlook

Indicative export price of Avocado
fruits in the first nine months of 2017, and it is on course to match the average annual growth rate of 3.3 percent registered over the past ten years. In terms of regional distribution, 55 percent of global papaya production is estimated to originate from Asia in 2017, 34 percent from Latin America and 11 from Africa.
India, the largest papaya producer in the world, with an estimated 43 percent output share in 2017, is forecast to post a 1.1 percent production growth from 2016, largely
due to increases in area harvested. Indian papaya production is mainly destined for internal consumption, as domestic demand has been kept on a strong footing by rising incomes and changing consumer preferences. These factors have stimulated India’s fast expansion of papaya production, which saw output double between 2007 and 2017.
Production growth in Brazil, the second largest producer in the world, is estimated to increase by 6.5 percent from 2016, after recovering from a drought-induced production decline estimated at 5 percent in 2016. While the largest share of production in Brazil is also destined for the domestic market, the country ranks as the second largest exporter behind Mexico and has achieved fast growth in export volumes in response to growing demand from the United States and the EU.
Global exports of papaya are estimated to reach
371 000 tonnes in 2017, which would represent an annual increase of 9 percent from 2016. This assessment points to a healthy recovery from the estimated 5 percent decline in export volumes experienced in 2016, caused by weather-related supply shortages in Brazil and Guatemala. Mexico, the leading international supplier, accounts for approximately half of all global papaya sales, with its 2017 exports forecast to increase 7 percent from 2016. Mexican export volumes are almost
Indicative export price of Papaya
USD per tonne
3 500 3 100 2 700 2 300 1 900 1 500
Jan Jun
2015 Avocado
Nov Jan
Jun Nov Jan Jun
2016
2017
Source: Calculated as the weighted export unit value of major exporters’ shipments
the Republic of Korea and Japan. Shipments to the Republic of Korea doubled in the first 8 months of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, albeit from a small base. Imports
by China are expected to increase 20 percent above its 2016 imports, reaching an estimated 44 000 tonnes in 2017. In light of the attractive remunerative opportunities that avocado offers, Chinese growers have started to expand the production of avocado for domestic consumption, with the first harvest from new plantations to take place in the autumn of 2017.
As a share of production, trade in fresh avocados is
the highest of the major tropical fruits and is estimated to reach 33 percent in 2017. Avocado is also the only fruit for which developed countries account for a non-trivial share of production, with the United States estimated to account for approximately 3 percent of global volume in 2017, primarily for domestic consumption.
Indicative export prices of avocado have proven highly susceptible to changes in supply and demand. They also vary due to seasonality and to the different varieties of avocado, which feature different sizes and quality levels. The significant slowdown in production growth in 2016 and 2017, coupled with fast expansion in demand in the major importers, has given strong upward impetus to export prices since June 2016, with prices reaching over USD 3 000/tonne in May 2017.
COMMODITY BRIEF: PAPAYA
Global production of papaya is estimated to reach
13.3 million tonnes in 2017, up 2.7 percent from the 2016 level. Due to the crop’s stronger resilience to adverse weather conditions, papaya production experienced significantly less disruption from adverse weather events than other tropical
Source: Calculated as the weighted export unit value of major exporters’ shipments
USD per tonne
850 820 790 760 730 700 670 640
Jan Jun
2015 Papaya
Nov Jan
Jun Nov Jan Jun
2016
2017
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
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