Page 6 - Climate Change and Food Systems

CCHAPTER 2
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: Approaches, insights
and caveats for modelling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale Christoph Müller and Joshua Elliott 28
1. Rationale 30
2. Biophysical models to assess climate change impacts on agricultural productivity 30
2.1 Crops and weather 30
2.2 Model types 31
3. Challenges for global-scale modelling 33
3.1 Global consistency vs. data scarcity 33
4. Recent advances in global-scale crop modelling 34
4.1 Global-scale impacts 34
4.2 Focus regions of climate change impacts 38
4.3 Inter-sectoral interaction 39
5. The Global Gridded Crop Model intercomparison 40
6. Open questions 41
6.1 Model evaluation and validation 42
6.2 Management 42
6.3 Effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations 43
6.4 Future challenges: Representative agricultural pathways 44
6.5 Future challenges: Drought and climate extremes 45
6.6 Future challenges: Connecting with field-scale assessments 46
6.7 Future challenges: Informing economic assessment with biophysical climate change
impact studies 46
7. Conclusions 47
CCHAPTER 3
Economic modelling of climate impacts and adaptation in agriculture:
A survey of methods, results and gaps
Aziz Elbehri and Mary Burfisher 60
1. Introduction 62
2. Defining climate adaptation: Analytical perspective 63
3. Global climate models 66
4. Pathway models 71
4.1 Crop yield models 71
4.2 Water-climate pathway models 76
4.3 Other pathway models 79
5. Economic models 80
5.1 Market- and sector-level models 80
5.2 Farm- and household-level models 89
6. Conclusions
iv