Page 8 - Climate Change and Food Systems

CCHAPTER 6
Global climate change, food supply and livestock production systems:
A bioeconomic analysis
Petr Havlík, David Leclère, Hugo Valin, Mario Herrero, Erwin Schmid,
Jean-Francois Soussana, Christoph Müller and Michael Obersteiner 176
1. Introduction 178
2. Methodology 179
2.1 Climate scenarios 179
2.2 Biophysical impact modelling 180
2.3 Economic impact modelling 183
3. Results 187
3.1 Livestock sector developments without climate change 187
3.2 Climate change impact on livestock markets 190
3.3 Land management adaptation 193
3.4 Livestock sector adaptation 195
4. Conclusions 196
CCHAPTER 7
Grain production trends in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the context of climate change and international trade
Elena Lioubimtseva, Nicolai Dronin and Andrei Kirilenko 210
1. Introduction 212
2. Historical trends of grain production and trade 218
2.1 Decline in agriculture in 1991-2001 213
2.2 Recovery trends in 2002-2013 215
3. Short-term weather variability and land dynamics 210
4. Impacts of climate change on grain production 222
5. Outlooks for grain production and export 229
6. Conclusions 235
CCHAPTER 8
The potential impact of climate change-induced sea level rise on the global
rice market and food security
Ching-Cheng Chang, Huey-Lin Lee and Shih-Hsun Hsu 246
1. Introduction 248
2. Model and data 249
3. Simulation design 250
4. Simulation results 252
5. Conclusions 260
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