Page 7 - Climate Change and Food Systems

CCHAPTER 4
An overview of climate change impact on crop production and its variability in
Europe, related uncertainties and research challenges
Reimund Rötter and Jukka Höhn 106
1. Introduction 108
1.1 Background and objectives 108
1.2 Climate change projections for Europe 109
2. Climate change impact assessment methodology for agriculture 113
2.1 Different approaches to assessment 113
2.2 Major shortcomings 116
2.3 Recent progress 118
2.4 Current use of crop simulation for assessing effects of climate and adaptation 119
3. Selected impacts for key crops and regions 121
3.1 Production trends - past and near future projections 121
3.2 Future shifts in production possibilities (suitability) 123
3.3 Projections of relative crop yield change under future climate scenarios 123
3.4 Projections of future crop production potential (yields and suitability) 129
3.5 Potential implications for trade and food security 130
4. Discussion of uncertainties 132
5. Recommendations for improving impact assessment 134
CCHAPTER 5
Climate change impact on key crops in Africa: Using crop models and general equilibrium models to bound the predictions
Timothy Thomas and Mark Rosegrant 146
1. Introduction 148 1.1 Population 150 1.2 Income 150 1.3 Agriculture 150
2. Climate and climate models 150 2.1 Precipitation 150 2.2 Temperature 155
3. DSSAT Crop Model Results 156
3.1 Rainfed maize 158
3.2 All crops 161
4. Impact model results 165
4.1 Maize 165
4.2 Sorghum 166
4.3 All crops 170
4.4 Malnutrition 171
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