Page 9 - Climate Change and Food Systems

CCHAPTER 9
An assessment of global banana production and suitability under climate
change scenarios
German Calberto, Charles Staver and Pablo Siles 264
1. Introduction 266
2. Climatic zones suitable for banana production 267
3. Climate change impacts through 2070 on areas of climatic zones suitable for banana suitability 268
4. Climate change productions for 24 banana-growing areas in Latin America, Africa and Asia 270
5. Changes in potential productivity for 24 key banana-growing areas in Latin America, Africa
and Asia for 2030, 2050 and 2070 275
5.1 Method to estimate banana GDD and TDU 275
5.2 Method to estimate water deficit in bananas 280
5.3 Results of calculations GDD, TDU and water deficit 280
6. Changes in leaf diseases for six key banana-growing sites in Latin America, Africa and Asia
for 2030, 2050, and 2070 281
7. Changes at the margins - potential areas lost and gained for banana production in
2030, 2050 and 2070 285
8. Implications of climate change for global banana production 288
CCHAPTER 10
The role of international trade under a changing climate: Insights from global economic modelling
Helal Ahammad and colleagues 292
1. Introduction 294
2. Modelling international trade 295
2.1 Modelling trade in a general equilibrium framework 295
2.2 Modelling trade in a partial equilibrium framework 297
3. Trade in agricultural commodities: Recent trends 298
4. Description of scenarios 299
5. Implications for trade of the “socio-economic and climatic”scenarios 300
5.1 Agrifood trade in 2050 under scenario S1 301
5.2 Agrifood trade in 2050: A closer look at model agreement 302
5.3 Key drivers of trade: Degree of model agreement 304
5.4 Production-exports nexus: degree of model agreement 308
6. Discussion and conclusions 308
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