Page 104 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

ecuador’s banana sector under climate change: an economic and biophysical assessment to promote a sustainable and climate-compatible strategy
essential. In an analysis of the implications of climate change for the banana sector, consideration should also be given to the source of irrigation water. How will these areas be affected by climate change? Are these changes positive and negative for the water needs and growing conditions of banana plantations down river?
The watershed of the Babahoyo River originates in the Andes and reaches the lowland where it joins the Guayas River. About 38.3 percent is subject to flooding (Noboa 2014). The average annual precipitation is approximately 2 300 mm, 300 mm greater than the lowlands. The projected average climate change in the upper watershed follows the pattern for the banana sites reviewed earlier (Figure 29). The rainfall distribution remains the same, with a slight increase in overall amount in most months of the year. Temperatures are also projected
to increase, following a similar pattern as in the lowlands. In terms of variability (Figure 30), extreme years are linked to El Niño (CPC, 2014). However, most of the points are found within the blue box, indicating a relatively stable climate from year to year. The frequency of extremely wet years is higher than the frequency of extremely dry years (Figure 31). If this pattern continues in the future, the problems of floods, made more severe due to deforestation and other land use changes, would appear to be a greater threat to banana productivity than the availability of water for irrigation.
2.6 Implications of climate change and weather variability for export banana production
The yield, productivity and quality of banana production are influenced by numerous interactions in the banana agro-ecosystem. The banana plant itself responds to available sunlight, temperature, water and nutrients which may
vary throughout the year. The banana plant is also a host to many organisms above and below ground - beneficial and parasitic - which are also influenced by light, water, temperature and nutrients. In addition, the organisms living off the banana also serve as nutrients and energy for other organisms. To date, banana scientists have not been able to capture banana growth and productivity and the dynamic of the food web into a single model to project the resulting responses
of banana to climate change. Diverse tools have been used here to develop a more complete perspective on the implications of climate change for banana, as presented in the previous sections. Below, these implications are summarized into abiotic and biotic factors and weather variability.
2.6.1 Abiotic conditions: temperature and rainfall
Through 2070, average climatic conditions will continue to be favourable for banana production in the primary production areas for bananas in Ecuador. The growth cycle from sucker emergence to flowering will shorten as a result of increased temperatures. This may result in smaller bunches, but more bunches per hectare per year with yields relatively stable.
Increasing temperatures in the cool season during July and August should favour increased productivity compared to the current temperature regime. The
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