Page 105 - Ecuador's Banana Sector under Climate Change

chapter 4: assessment of climate change impact on banana production and suitability in ecuador, and general assessment of global banana trends under climate change scenarios
Figure 29 Climate change projections for the upper watershed of Babahoyo *
30 25 20 15 10 5
600 500 400 300 200 100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0
RAIN
TMIN
2050 TMIN
2030 PREC
2030 TMAX
2070 TMAX
Month 2050 PREC
2070 PREC TMAX TMEAN 2030 TMIN 2050 TMAX 2050 TMEAN 2070 TMIN
2030 TMEAN
2070 TMEAN
Source: Authors’ elaboration, using average values for 20 GCMs under scenario A2
Figure 30 Variability for the upper watershed of Babahoyo - average precipitation and temperature (1960-1990): 2 300 mm and 20°C, respectively
150
125
100
75
50
25
0 -25 -50 -75
-100-2 -1,5 -1
- 0,5
0
0,5 1
1,5 2
98
83
53
65 99 9272 08 76 94
57
75
55
02
06 518993
8287
0597003 69
73
07 50015884 96
8895
05 5480 61
6263
71 60 64
0466 52
86
91
97
74 67 56 68
78 77 85 79
81 90 09
Temperature anomaly (oC)
Source: Author’s elaboration, based on CRU data
Figure 31 The frequency of extremely wet and extremely hot years
3500 0.4 3000 0.3 2500 0.3 2000 0.2 1500 0.2 1000 0.1
500 0.1 0 0.0 -500 -0.1
-1000 -0.1 -1500 -0.2 -2000 -0.2
Precipitation Temperature
Source: Authors’ elaboration, based on CRU data
89
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Precipitation Anomaly (mm)
° Temperature Anomaly (oC)
Precipitation anomaly (%)
Temperature (Co)
Precipitation (mm)