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and warmer temperatures around the edges of the storm. Color,
like shape, also often corresponds with wind speeds. It can
provide clues about the health of the storm’s convection. Black
and red, means the clouds are cold and the convection runs
deep. In other words, these colors indicate more intense
thunderstorms. If the temperatures are getting colder over time,
you know those thunderstorms are getting stronger and deeper
and if they’re warming over time, it might indicate that they’re
starting to dissipate.
How to predict hurricanes?
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is responsible for forecasting all
tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins around
North America. The NHC forecasts the track, intensity, size, and structure of
tropical cyclones, storm surges, rainfall, and tornadoes associated with
tropical cyclones, and the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 48
hours. Once a tropical cyclone forms, NHC staff follows a set of procedures to
generate a set of forecast products and then communicate those products
outside of NHC every six hours. While the NHC forecast process is the focus
here, other agencies responsible for tropical cyclone forecasting in other
ocean basins follow similar procedures, but their procedures are tailored to
the needs of their areas of responsibility and are guided by the observational,
modeling, and forecast dissemination capabilities of those areas. The NHC
hurricane forecast process begins with available observations. Satellites,
reconnaissance aircraft, Ships, buoys, radar, and other land-based platforms
are important tools used in hurricane tracking and prediction. While a tropical
cyclone is over the open ocean, remote measurements of the storm’s intensity
and track are made primarily via satellites. Forecasters use satellite data to
estimate characteristics of a storm, including the location of its center, its past
motion (within 6-12 hours), and its intensity (maximum wind speed). Atlantic
and Pacific Geostationary (GOES) satellites can continuously observe
hurricanes from their formation to dissipation. Once an Atlantic hurricane
becomes a threat to land, it is directly monitored by U.S. Air Force and NOAA
hurricane aircraft, dropsonde​s, and land stations. Hurricane forecasters then
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use their experience and judgment to decide how to use the individual and
ensemble model guidance to produce the best possible forecast.
Tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the
national centers and local forecast offices to provide consistency, which is
important when a tropical cyclone landfall is imminent. After the NHC issues a
forecast, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) use the information to
tailor their local forecasts. Hurricane forecasts have traditionally focused on
predicting a storm’s track and intensity. The track and size of the storm
determine which areas may be hit. Unfortunately, no single forecast model is
consistently better than other models at making these predictions. Sometimes
these forecasts show dramatically different paths, diverging by hundreds of
miles. Other times, the models are in close agreement. In some cases, even
when models are in close agreement, the small differences in track have very
large differences in storm surge, winds and other factors that impact damage
and evacuations.

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