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A Syrian boy holds an
Iranian flag as a truck
carrying aid provided by Iran
arrives in the eastern city of
Deir el-Zour 20 September
2017 PHOTO: AFP

83 percent of Syrians would be a huge strategic loss to Iran’s interests signs and advertisements there are now often
in the region. written in Farsi.
are living below the While Iran has supported large numbers of Iran also has a soft power strategy that it is
fighters in Syria with sectarian Shia militias from exerting by establishing cultural and education
poverty line and Iran, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan, and has centres and encouraging people to convert to Shia
established numerous military bases, it has also
Islam. This is paired with strategies to buy loyalty.
struggling to make been the main backer of the regime financially Iranian militias are paying Syrian youth up to
$700 per month to join, while the Syrian army
and economically. Since 2013, Iran has provided
ends meet or afford Syria with credit lines to import fuel and other only pays $40. While many Syrians cannot return
to their home country, the regime has fast-tracked
goods and is also a major trading partner.
Iran is expanding its presence in Syria and
basic necessities. seeks to embed itself in Syrian society in a way naturalisation of foreigners to ensure Iranians
and others can become citizens.
that Russia does not. It also appears to be cement- It’s clear that forced displacement of oppo-
ing its presence economically in order to ensure sitional communities—and the repopulation
that it maintains influence in the event of a peace of those areas with communities perceived as
deal which would call on foreign militia to leave. loyal—was part of a deliberate strategy by the re-
Part of its strategy is buying up real estate gime to change demographics in order to ensure
in Damascus, Homs, Deir Al-Zour and Aleppo. a loyal constituency in the areas it controls. It
Properties of Syrians who have been displaced appears that one reason there is a political stale-
by the conflict are now inhabited by members mate is that the regime is buying time to create
of Iranian-backed militias and their families. facts on the ground in its favour.
Land belonging to displaced Syrians has been I’ll just finish by saying that anti-Iranian
auctioned at symbolic prices, and the main buyers sentiment in Syria is at an all-time high. Iranian
are members of Iranian-backed militias. This is policy in Syria (and Iraq) has vastly increased the
compounded by the fact that due to the desperate Sunni sense of victimhood, which is a contribut-
economic situation, or in situations in which ing factor in the rise of groups such as ISIS. The
people are unable to return to their homes, people Iranian presence has also led to repeated bombing
are selling their properties to Iranians. Lucrative by Israel of Iranian targets because it doesn’t want
contracts have been awarded to Iranian compa- an Iranian presence on its northern border.
nies for reconstruction and infrastructure. The withdrawal of Iran would lead to a sig-
In Damascus, for example, people report a nificant weakening of the regime. This is why
noticeable change in demographics in areas such the Assad regime has not won—it is completely
as Bab Touma and Bad Sharqi, which previously dependent on foreign powers to run the country
had a large Christian community. They are now and cannot manage the massive economic crisis
dominated by members of Iranian militias. Shop engulfing the country.