Page 16 - RedFlagJune14

REDFLAG | 14 JUNE 2021 PUBLICATION OF SOCIALIST ALTERNATIVE REDFLAG.ORG.AU

16

TAIWAN

Independence and

the new Cold War

Mick Armstrong Australia, Japan and South Korea deciding to China over Taiwan or over any other issue. We
stridently oppose any Australian involvement in
develop their own nuclear weapons.
As to the US’s approach, some commentators such a war, a war that could cost many hundreds
have argued that the US government will not of thousands of lives if fought with conventional
be prepared to go to war over Taiwan, and that weapons, and untold millions if nuclear weapons
aiwan is becoming a potential major the US can’t win a conventional war and is very were unleashed. You could not, for example, rule
flashpoint in the imperialist conflict unlikely to risk a nuclear war. These commen- out the possibility of the US launching a pre-emp-
developing between the US and a tators argue that at some point, the US will cut tive nuclear strike on North Korea as a warning to
rising China. a deal with China and abandon Taiwan. If that China if an invasion of Taiwan seemed imminent.
In Australia, the government and were to happen, it would be a major setback for In Australia, where our government is so stri-
T military establishment have mark- US imperialism. It would be a real sign of decline dently in the US camp in this conflict, socialists
edly stepped up their anti-Chinese rhetoric, with and weakness, both in the Asia Pacific region and and anti-war activists need to be directing their
talk of preparations for war in the coming decade. on the broader world stage. The Asia Pacific is campaigning against the enemy at home—our
Military spending is being sharply boosted, and increasingly the key area for world capitalism. For own ruling class and its allies.
some in the Murdoch press are calling for Austra- the US to meekly surrender its domination there But that does not mean that socialists should
lia to obtain its own nuclear weapons. would represent an enormous retreat. give Chinese imperialism a blank cheque. Some
The Chinese regime has long considered So, while we can’t entirely rule out the possi- on the left, various Stalinists and supporters of
Taiwan to be an integral part of China, but it has bility of some sordid Munich-style agreement—in regimes that are hostile to the US such as Assad’s
not had the military capacity or political will to which the French and British imperialists in the Syria, Putin’s Russia, North Korea and Iran, have
seize the island. However, some Western military 1930s handed over Czechoslovakia to Nazi Ger- backed the brutal Chinese crackdown in Hong
analysts now believe that China is in a position many in a futile attempt to avoid war—it is not Kong and argue that China has a legitimate claim
to fight a successful war with the US over Taiwan the most likely response of the US ruling class to to Taiwan. They argue that Taiwan was historical-
using conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) weaponry. China’s claim to Taiwan. The US abandoning Tai- ly Chinese territory that was taken from China by
That does not mean that a Chinese invasion of Tai- wan would hardly inspire confidence in its allies imperialist powers. Even if this historical claim
wan is imminent, though it can’t be ruled out in in Japan, South Korea and Japan. These allies could were true, that would not justify a murderous
the next decade. Even if the Chinese regime does conceivably start to go their own way, cutting invasion that would not be supported by the mass
have, or soon will have, the conventional military individual deals with Beijing and thereby further of workers and ordinary people in Taiwan and
capacity to invade Taiwan successfully, it will still weakening the US’s strategic positioning. not in any way advance the interests of workers
remain a risky move for the Chinese ruling class. Moreover, Taiwan is far from being a poor in China itself.
First, there is a danger that such a war could Third World country. It is a significant industrial In reality, though, the Chinese claim to Taiwan
spill over into a nuclear war, which China could economy, the 19th largest in the world, with the is not a strong one. Taiwan is no more integrally
not win against vastly superior US nuclear 13th highest GDP per head in terms of purchasing part of the Chinese nation than is Tibet, the Uy-
strike power. power parity. ghur territories, Vietnam or Singapore. Taiwan is
Second, even if an invasion was initially suc- It has considerable importance to the US econ- a classic early example of a colonial settler state
cessful, there is the possibility of a long, drawn- omy, as it is the major supplier of high-quality that displaced the original indigenous Polynesian
out insurgency. While some wealthy Taiwanese microchips. Indeed, Taiwan’s role as a microchip inhabitants, who are related ethnically to the New
capitalists, who have extensive and very profitable producer is becoming increasingly important as Zealand Maoris, Samoans and Tongans. There
investments in China, might go along with an demand for chips is growing rapidly. The Taiwan was no significant Chinese presence on the island
invasion, there is no indication that the mass of Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) before the 17th century.
Taiwanese workers and young people are going to was recently listed as the 10th most valuable com- It was only during the period of Dutch colonial
welcome Chinese troops as liberators. Moreover, pany in the world. So, for the US to totally abandon rule over part of Taiwan from 1624 to 1662 that the
there is a long history of resistance to occupying Taiwan would have considerable costs. colonial authorities brought in Chinese settlers.
imperialist powers in Taiwan. China’s rulers have While the Biden administration has not as These Chinese settlers were used by the Dutch to
seen what damage the long-term occupations of yet pledged to fight a war over Taiwan, the work the land confiscated from the indigenous
Iraq and Afghanistan have done to the US empire, US is increasing military aid to the country as population. The Dutch faced rebellions from
and before that the Russians in Afghanistan. Why well as of course massively increasing its own the indigenous people and eventually, in 1662, a
risk going down that road? military spending and attempting to deepen its Chinese invasion force took advantage of one of
Third, such an aggressive step by China risks alliances with the fellow Quad nations—Japan, these revolts to seize the island and incorporate it
pushing surrounding countries—India, Japan, India and Australia. into the Chinese empire. So, the Chinese claim to
South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines—deep- The socialist standpoint is straightforward. Taiwan is not much stronger than a British claim
er into the US camp and risks the possibility of We oppose an imperialist war between the US and to Ireland or Russian to the Ukraine.