Page 405 - 2014 Printable Abstract Book
P. 405
Fukushima-1 NPP with the radius of 20 km, all the about 90 thousand of residents were evacuated on 12-
15 March, 2011, before major radionuclide releases occurred. Although another ten thousand people
residing in the North-West radioactive trace (up to about 45 km from Fukushima-1 NPP) were evacuated
in March-June 2011 they obtained the largest radiation doses among the general public. Among
population that was not evacuated, the largest doses were incurred by the residents of Fukushima City
where radionuclide soil deposition was the largest in Japan. The average external doses of various age
and social population groups in every municipality of the Fukushima Prefecture and six neighboring
prefectures were assessed by UNSCEAR based on local radiation measurements by means of dosimetric
models elaborated from the results of post-Chernobyl studies. The external doses and internal inhalation
doses from the passage of radioactive plume were assessed by means of atmospheric transfer modelling.
For assessment of the ingestion doses, both food monitoring data and radioecological model FARMLAND
were used. The internal dose estimations were validated by comparison of modelled doses with the doses
estimated from human measurements. The number of I-131 thyroid measurements is limited (about
1300) and, therefore, uncertainty of thyroid dose reconstruction is substantial. The contribution to tissue
doses of the public from incorporated Cs-134 and Cs-137 is relatively minor; external dose dominates in
all organs except of thyroid. The range of average doses incurred by the residents of municipalities of the
st
Fukushima Prefecture during the 1 year after the accident is by a factor of 5 to10 lower than the dose
range was in the Chernobyl accident area. The range of average thyroid doses incurred by children residing
in settlements of the Fukushima Prefecture during two months after the accident (0 to about 30 mGy) is
by a factor of 10 to100 lower than the thyroid dose range was in children from the Chernobyl accident
area. The range of average doses in other organs and tissues than thyroid of the residents of settlements
st
of the Fukushima Prefecture during the 1 year after the accident (0 to about10 mGy) is by a factor of 5
to10 lower than the dose range was in the Chernobyl accident area. External exposure of the residents of
the Fukushima Prefecture will continue over few decades with declining dose rate, and the lifetime
st
external dose is estimated to be about three times the 1 year dose.
(S3003) Model of carcinogenesis in the UkrAm cohort based on omics data. Jan Christian Kaiser; Kristian
Unger; Horst Zitzelsberger; and Peter Jacob, Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Oberschleissheim, Germany
Thyroid cancer risk after the Chornobyl accident has been studied in the UkrAm cohort of about
12,500 subjects who were children or adolescents at the time of the accident and who had their exposure
to I131 measured individually within two months after the accident. In five screening periods from 1998 -
2008 more than hundred (mostly papillary (PTC)) thyroid cancer cases have been detected. The dose-
response relationship from descriptive risk models shows a significantly elevated radiation risk especially
for subjects exposed at young age. Mechanistic risks models on the other hand provide risk estimates
based on the phenomenological description of cell-based processes. The biological plausibility of this class
of models is markedly improved by integrating molecular data on early carcinogenic events which are
related to cell proliferation and genomic instability. In this talk we present integration approaches for such
data into mechanistic risk models of PTC carcinogenesis. Deregulated MAPK is involved in the majority of
PTCs and active MAPK induces cell proliferation, which is a prerequisite for growth of a lesion. Disturbed
MAPK signaling in differentiated non-malignant thyroid tissue may indicate early molecular changes on
the pathway to cancer. From microarray expression data [1] on normal tissue (corresponding to tumor
tissue from UkrAm PTC patients) ten most informative genes have been identified and, depending on their
cellular location, a MAPK activation score has been defined. The score depends on sex, age at exposure,
15 March, 2011, before major radionuclide releases occurred. Although another ten thousand people
residing in the North-West radioactive trace (up to about 45 km from Fukushima-1 NPP) were evacuated
in March-June 2011 they obtained the largest radiation doses among the general public. Among
population that was not evacuated, the largest doses were incurred by the residents of Fukushima City
where radionuclide soil deposition was the largest in Japan. The average external doses of various age
and social population groups in every municipality of the Fukushima Prefecture and six neighboring
prefectures were assessed by UNSCEAR based on local radiation measurements by means of dosimetric
models elaborated from the results of post-Chernobyl studies. The external doses and internal inhalation
doses from the passage of radioactive plume were assessed by means of atmospheric transfer modelling.
For assessment of the ingestion doses, both food monitoring data and radioecological model FARMLAND
were used. The internal dose estimations were validated by comparison of modelled doses with the doses
estimated from human measurements. The number of I-131 thyroid measurements is limited (about
1300) and, therefore, uncertainty of thyroid dose reconstruction is substantial. The contribution to tissue
doses of the public from incorporated Cs-134 and Cs-137 is relatively minor; external dose dominates in
all organs except of thyroid. The range of average doses incurred by the residents of municipalities of the
st
Fukushima Prefecture during the 1 year after the accident is by a factor of 5 to10 lower than the dose
range was in the Chernobyl accident area. The range of average thyroid doses incurred by children residing
in settlements of the Fukushima Prefecture during two months after the accident (0 to about 30 mGy) is
by a factor of 10 to100 lower than the thyroid dose range was in children from the Chernobyl accident
area. The range of average doses in other organs and tissues than thyroid of the residents of settlements
st
of the Fukushima Prefecture during the 1 year after the accident (0 to about10 mGy) is by a factor of 5
to10 lower than the dose range was in the Chernobyl accident area. External exposure of the residents of
the Fukushima Prefecture will continue over few decades with declining dose rate, and the lifetime
st
external dose is estimated to be about three times the 1 year dose.
(S3003) Model of carcinogenesis in the UkrAm cohort based on omics data. Jan Christian Kaiser; Kristian
Unger; Horst Zitzelsberger; and Peter Jacob, Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Oberschleissheim, Germany
Thyroid cancer risk after the Chornobyl accident has been studied in the UkrAm cohort of about
12,500 subjects who were children or adolescents at the time of the accident and who had their exposure
to I131 measured individually within two months after the accident. In five screening periods from 1998 -
2008 more than hundred (mostly papillary (PTC)) thyroid cancer cases have been detected. The dose-
response relationship from descriptive risk models shows a significantly elevated radiation risk especially
for subjects exposed at young age. Mechanistic risks models on the other hand provide risk estimates
based on the phenomenological description of cell-based processes. The biological plausibility of this class
of models is markedly improved by integrating molecular data on early carcinogenic events which are
related to cell proliferation and genomic instability. In this talk we present integration approaches for such
data into mechanistic risk models of PTC carcinogenesis. Deregulated MAPK is involved in the majority of
PTCs and active MAPK induces cell proliferation, which is a prerequisite for growth of a lesion. Disturbed
MAPK signaling in differentiated non-malignant thyroid tissue may indicate early molecular changes on
the pathway to cancer. From microarray expression data [1] on normal tissue (corresponding to tumor
tissue from UkrAm PTC patients) ten most informative genes have been identified and, depending on their
cellular location, a MAPK activation score has been defined. The score depends on sex, age at exposure,
