Page 6 - Health Impact Assessment of policies related to local pharmaceutical industry development towards technology readiness and access to medicines: HIAPP

Health Impact Assessment of policies related to local pharmaceutical industry
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development towards technology readiness and access to medicines: HIAPP

industry in the country. The policy sets were divided into two parts: a policy set to enhance

technology complexity potential and a policy set to expand the market scale. The aim of
these policy sets was to push the pharmaceutical production industry in the country to

become a main industry that generates income for the country. The policy formulation was

linked throughout the supply chain. This leaded to pharmaceutical technology innovations,
pharmaceutical production, and drug security.

3. The average cost to research, develop, and register one successful

biopharmaceutical product such as monoclonal antibodies was estimated to be in a range of
705-890 million baht, with clinical trials being the most expensive part i.e. 360-420 million

baht. On average, it takes up to 8-10 years for a new biopharmaceutical product to reach the

marketplace. The estimated annual sales value of biosimilar drugs, Pertuzumab and
Pembrolizumab, was approximately 86-1,400 million baht, with a payback period ranging from

1 - 14 years depending on market share, incidence, prevalence, and support from the

government.
4. An assessment of Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement of Trans-Pacific

Partnership (CPTPP) in Patent linkage, Government procurement, and State-owned enterprise

chapters using the system dynamic modeling showed that joining CPTPP agreement would
cost Thailand approximately 400 billion baht more in drug expenses compared to the non-

participating situation. Thailand would have to rely on drug imports up to 89%, compared with

76% in the absence of the agreement. The market value of the pharmaceutical industry in
the country would be lost approximately for 100 billion baht, compared to the non-

participating situation.

5. The impact of the alternative policy proposals on the development of the
pharmaceutical industry to leverage the technology for research and development of

products, to increase the value of the pharmaceutical industry, and to make the

pharmaceutical industry the main industry that generates income for the country was

evaluated by using a system dynamics model. The result showed that the simulated situations

of the biopharmaceutical and chemical drugs during 2019 - 2047 could be divided into 2
situations: (1) the situation where business as usual, BAU i.e. the country continues to promote

the pharmaceutical industry in the country in the form and the level of action already taken;

and (2) the situation where the policy proposals were being implemented to systematically

develop and promote the pharmaceutical industry in the country. The latter situation