Page 51 - Rockefeller Lockstep Document

Appendix

CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

The following is a list of the 15 critical uncertainties presented to participants during this project’s
primary scenario creation workshop. These uncertainties were themselves selected from a significantly
longer list generated during earlier phases of research and extensive interviewing. The uncertainties fall
into three categories: technological, social and environmental, and economic and political.
Each uncertainty is presented along with two polar endpoints, both representing a very different direction
in which that uncertainty might develop.

TECHNOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTIES

new technologies  technologies with the most  existing technologies
impact on development
origin of technology
developing worlds  innovations critical to  BRICs
both developed and developed world and some
development
slow the adoption
allow for rapid adoption
of novel technologies  social and cultural norms  of novel technologies
new innovations that
infant mortality (vaccines, 
few  substantially reduce child and many
treatments, cures)

SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTIES

dynamic, open to the
static, traditional  community identity in the  novel and nontraditional Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development
developing world
restricted  educational and employment  expanding
opportunities for women
occurrence of “shocks”
infrequent and manageable  like disease, famine, and frequent and highly
natural disasters  disruptive
quality of the local 51
world (air, water, sanitation, 
poor and worsening  environment in the developing improved and improving
built environment, etc.)
de-prioritized  global climate change  prioritized
awareness and action