Page 1 - Market Outlook Q3 2025

North American Trailer
Q3, 2025
NTDA MARKET
Economic Overview

N DA After falling 0.6% in the first quarter, U.S.
GDP grew 3.8% in the second quarter.

NATIONAL TRAILER DEALERS ASSOCIATION The first-quarter decline was primarily
due to a large increase in imports (a
negative in the calculation of GDP) which
OUTLOOK
resulted from businesses and consumers
acting on their expectations that tariffs
would raise prices. In the second quarter,
imports fell more than they rose in the
first quarter, which had a large positive
impact on GDP.
Businesses’ purchases of imports in the
first quarter led to a large increase in
private sector inventories. In the second
quarter, investment declined 2.7%
relative to the first quarter as business
owners waited to see if policy would
stabilize. Through the third quarter, a
wait and see attitude prevailed, which
will probably linger through the fourth
quarter. The first calculation of third-
quarter GDP has been delayed by the
government shutdown. It is unlikely data
will be available until November.
What we do know as of mid-October is
that businesses are no longer delaying
inclusion of higher costs associated with
tariffs into the prices of their goods and
services. Per the Budget Lab at Yale, the
average U.S. tariff is now roughly 17%,
the highest it has been since 1936. That
will likely put further upwards pressure
on inflation and make it difficult for the
NATIONAL TRAILER DEALERS ASSOCIATION Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest
9864 E. Grand River Ave. rates again this year.
Ste. 110-290
Brighton, MI 48116 Continued on Page 3...

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