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42 Europe
2 may muddle through better than other eu
countries. And though its car industry
ceased production for a while (see Brief-
ing), sectors like chemicals and steel kept
working. Electricity usage and mobility
data suggest the slowdown has been less
acute than in France, Spain or Italy. Still,
the Bundesbank expects a “severe” reces-
sion and the imfforecasts a 7% contraction
this year, deeper than in 2009. The open-
ness of its economy leaves Germany espe-
cially vulnerable to severed supply chains
and slumping foreign demand, even once
domestic consumption resumes.
The pace of recovery will also depend on
how quickly restrictions are eased. With
the number of recorded infections now ris-
ing by only 1-2% each day Germany is tenta-
tively opening up, starting with smaller
shops, and classes for children facing ex-
ams. By European standards the lockdown
A French conundrum
Rush-hour running
PARIS
The capital’s strange attitude to joggers
irst the Paris town hall shut the
Fcity’s gyms, on national orders. Next it
locked the parks and closed riverside
paths. Then it banned running during
the day, between 10am and 7pm. This
latest ruling was designed to separate
joggers from daytime shoppers queuing
for essentials on the city’s narrow pave-
ments. But the result has been an eve-
ning rush hour, as joggers emerge from
confinement all at the same time to
squeeze in a run before supper.
Paris has imposed some of Europe’s
tightest rules on outdoor exercise. In
Amsterdam or Berlin joggers can run
when they like, so long as they respect
social distancing. In most regions Ital-
Free at last
was late and lenient. But perhaps because
Germany was less affected than its neigh-
bours, the consensus behind it is crum-
bling. Larger retailers are chafing. So are
working parents facing kindergarten clo-
sures that may last for months. Such rows
play out in the fractious negotiations Mrs
Merkel must conduct with the leaders of
Germany’s 16 states. This week she was re-
ported to have lamented the “orgies” of de-
bate over who may open when, fearing they
cloud the risks of fresh waves of infection.
The chancellor, a scientist fluent in the
argot of reproduction rates and risk
management, is “perfect” for this situa-
tion, says Karin Prien, a minister in the
state of Schleswig-Holstein and a party col- forged in adversity is now starting to crack.
league. Mrs Merkel’s approval ratings are
nudging 80% and her Christian Democrat-
ic Union is soaring in the polls; some quiet- now arguing vigorously about what comes
ly hope she may break her pledge to stand
ians can go jogging, even if just in a tight
circle around their homes. Only Spain
has enforced truly drastic rules, having
banned all outdoor exercise (and kept
children inside for the past six weeks).
Has confinement revealed a hitherto
hidden French passion for le jogging? A
poll suggests that in normal times only
10% of the French go running regularly. A
mere 6m people belong to a gym in
France, well below the 11m in Germany or
10m in Britain. Parisians are expected to
be shaped by nature, not machines.
During lockdown some improbably
dressed joggers have been spotted
pounding the streets, complete with the
occasional jaunty silk scarf.
When in 2007 Nicolas Sarkozy broke
with the formality of presidential tradi-
tion by leaving the Elysée palace in run-
ning shorts, one commentator linked it
to his politics: “Jogging is of course about vid-19 pandemic was in full swing. His job
performance and individualism, values
that are traditionally ascribed to the
right.” Purists deplored the casual look.
Intellectuals sniffed at the vulgarity.
Jogging, said Alain Finkielkraut, a philo-
sopher, did nothing for the soul or the
mind; it was mere “body management”.
Instead he praised la promenade, as prac-
tised by Aristotle or Rimbaud. A medit-
ative walk, argued Mr Finkielkraut, is a
“sensitive, spiritual experience”. Perhaps
this explains the Paris rules. For now,
daytime jogging may be banned, but
people can still walk—even if only for an
hour, around their homes—at any time
of the day. Whatever they are thinking.
The Economist April 25th 2020
down at next year’s election. Yet, notes
Thorsten Benner of the Global Public Policy
Institute, a think-tank, her talents may
have been better suited to the first stage of
the crisis, which demanded calm compe-
tence, rather than the awkward trade-offs
of the next. Unlike Sebastian Kurz, chan-
cellor of Austria, which locked down early
and hard and is now easing more quickly,
she has not found a vision of recovery to
leaven her message of caution.
There have been wobbles as well as
wins. The government has struggled to
step up production of face-masks, for ex-
ample, although all 16 states now mandate
their use. And the cross-party consensus
Yet Germany’s successes in managing the
outbreak are undeniable. The fact that it is
next is not the least among them. 7
Turkey, refugees and covid-19
A crisis within a
crisis
ISTANBUL
In a battered country, millions of
Syrian refugees have it worst
t the end of February, when Turkey’s
APresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan an-
nounced he would open his country’s bor-
ders with Greece to migrants and refugees,
Salih, an Afghan living in Istanbul, heeded
the call, as did thousands of others. But the
Greek side of the border was closed. For ten
days, Salih waited and slept rough near the
main crossing. Eventually, Turkish police
drove him and a few others to a river separ-
ating the two countries and ordered the
group to cross by boat, threatening them
with batons. Greek guards then captured
him, took his cash and phone, and sent him
back. By the time he returned to Istanbul,
where he had earned a living fixing win-
dows since escaping the Taliban, the co-
was gone. The company he worked for had
closed. Salih, who lives with his wife and
two children, can no longer pay rent and
faces eviction. “We ran out of money,” he
says. “We have nothing left.”
Across Turkey, the pandemic is taking
an increasingly heavy toll in lives and in
jobs. For the second time in as many years,
a recession beckons, this one more severe
than the last. The imf expects the economy
to contract by 5% this year. An avalanche of
lay-offs has already started to swell. It will
hit the millions of migrants and refugees
living in Turkey hardest, and it will hit
them first.
Mr Erdogan would like to prevent mass
loss of life without risking economic col- 1