Page 4 - FSUOGM Week 44 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Mixed outlook for COP26 as leaders

embark on search for agreement

COP26 is trying to put flesh on the bones of the targets and promises made at
the 2015 Paris meeting

GLOBAL THE 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) of the their efforts to mitigate climate change.
United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- Green think-tank E3G noted that details on
WHAT: mate Change (UNFCCC) is trying to put flesh timelines and specific actions to deliver on the
COP26 is taking place in on the bones of the targets and promises made at promise of faster action in the 2020s were few
Glasgow, Scotland. the 2015 Paris meeting. and far between.
In terms of global warming, the world is E3G said that ending international coal
WHY: today 1.1°C warmer than in pre-industrial times finance was a breakthrough, and stressed that
Global leaders are set to and is on track for 2.7°C by 2100. In Paris, the Italian PM Draghi has said that China and India
announce new climate world agreed on limiting this to 1.5°C, or 2°C at a had been more willing to speed up their own
ambitions. push, but did not set out how to reach this target. domestic coal phase-out timelines.
However, the UN has warned of “climate “After a tough fight that went all the way to
WHAT NEXT: catastrophe” if the world’s governments do not Leaders, the G20 have confirmed the need for all
Rather than its NDCs, rapidly improve their current climate change countries to increase ambition this decade con-
Russia is expected to policies and cut their emissions levels. sistent with keeping 1.5°C within reach. COP26
deliver cuts to CO2 now needs to turn this political promise into an
emissions through its G20 agreed process. The G20 contains the world's
carbon market. The G20 conference in Rome on October 30-31 largest polluters, so was never going to be the
had the potential to provide some leadership on place to see the strongest climate leadership. The
concrete action to meet the Paris targets, and to G20 has fallen short on clear commitments to
send signals about how ready the world’s rich stop building coal and other fossil infrastructure
nations are to commit to improve climate targets. but has agreed the need for more action in the
However, it ended with somewhat vague and 2020s,” said E3G chief executive Nick Mabey.
unconvincing commitments to taking action to This could suggest that while some leading
combat climate change and to hold back global G20 members such as the UK, Germany, France
warming. and Japan have already set a 2050 net-zero target,
The final statement only referred to “mean- there is as yet no global consensus on agreement
ingful and effective” action to stem global warm- on making a global commitment to net zero by
ing, and said that the G20 nations’ Nationally 2050, instead leaving the decision to individual
Determined Contributions (NDCs) would be states and setting a vague “mid-century” date.
improved “if necessary.” China and Russia have set 2060, not 2050, as
The strongest climate change pledge was to deadlines for net zero, while India has not set
stop financing new, unabated coal plants abroad any date.
by the end of 2021. The leaders also only prom-
ised to phase out coal power “as soon as possible.” NDCs
However, this still allows major coal-burning The good news is that more and more countries
countries such as China, Russia, India and even have submitted their Nationally Determined
the EU to continue using coal power at home. Contributions (NDCs).
Nevertheless, this will create more pressure A long list of developed countries, including
on these countries to reduce their use of coal at the UK, the EU, Japan and most recently Aus-
home. tralia, have set 2050 as their target date for net-
What this means is that the world will have to zero emissions, while China has committed itself
wait longer for any stronger, multilateral com- to 2060.
mitment to ending the use of coal. However, far more controversial, and more
Most importantly, the final communiqué open to debate and disagreement, will be any tar-
did not mention the 2050 date, but referred to gets for 2030. While updated or new NDCs can
“around mid-century,” and committed to take be effective in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)
further action in the 2020s, including improv- emissions over time, an increase of about 16%
ing 2030 NDCs. in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to
They committed themselves to keeping the 2010 is expected for the aggregate NDCs of 192
1.5°C target “within reach” and to speeding up countries.

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