Page 5 - FSUOGM Week 44 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Such an increase in emissions translates to a atomic and hydropower energy.
global average temperature rise of about 2.7°C by VTB Capital (VTBC) analysts expect the
the end of the century. COP26 political agenda to be dominated by
“We are nowhere near where science says we mini-deals that various groups of countries can
should be,” cautioned UNFCCC Executive Sec- support. These include country-specific carbon
retary Patricia Espinosa. She urged countries to neutrality targets, a ban on coal-fired capacity
“urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are export financing, a global methane pledge and
to prevent global temperature increases beyond FACT initiating deforestation prevention.
the Paris Agreement’s goal of well below 2°C – Russia could join the carbon neutrality com-
ideally 1.5°C – by the end of the century.” mitment (by 2060) and offer only verbal sup-
The UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) port to the global methane pledge, while VTBC
stressed that even if current net-zero pledges set doubts that Russia will join the remaining two
out in NDCs were fully implemented, these initiatives at this moment.
pledges could bring the predicted global tem- Russian 2030 NDC "will not envision any
perature rise to 2.2°C. meaningful CO2 footprint reduction, and we
This is set to be a key area for debate and dis- see carbon markets as the most critical develop-
pute in Glasgow. While there is consensus on ment, opening the route toward carbon-neutral
long-term goals for 2050 and 2100, governments Russian products and new revenue sources for
are much less likely to agree on what they should those corporates that undertake green projects
do in the next 10 years. domestically," VTBC analysts commented.
Put simply, existing goals for 2030 are Russia is the fourth-largest economy in terms
nowhere near enough to lay the foundations for of GHG emissions and is in general keen for
further milestones in 2050 and 2100. countries to pursue their own fossil fuel agendas
for as long as possible.
Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend Turkey
the conference, but said by video link that Russia Similarly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo-
aimed “not just to reach carbon neutrality, but to gan has reportedly cancelled his visit to Glasgow,
make sure that within the next three decades, the blaming the UK government’s decision to pro-
amount of greenhouse gas emissions in Russia is vide less security than initially promised for the
lower than, for instance, that of our neighbours Turkish delegation, Middle East Eye (MEE) said
and colleagues in the EU." October 31.
Russia is expected to reiterate its carbon neu- Turkey only signed the 2015 Paris Agreement
trality goals and to bargain for the recognition of in October 2021, the last G20 nation to do so,
some of the pillars of the country’s greenhouse and has set 2053 as its target date for net zero.
gas emission reduction strategy. However, it has not provided any details of how
These include full recognition of the absorp- it will do this.
tion capacity of its forests (1.2mn tonnes of CO2 A key issue for Turkey is that it wants to be
equivalent, out of which half is lost in forest fires regarded as a developing country, so that it can
and deforestation), as well as the "green" status of access climate finance, rather than its current

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