Page 7 - DMEA Week 11 2023

DMEA POLICY & SECURITY DMEA

it comes to relations with Iran is that Riyadh them in the west and in the east.”
refused to join the Abraham accords that nor- With Iran already increasingly allied with
malised relations between Israel and some Arab Russia—sending combat drones to the Kremlin
states in late 2020. The accords infuriated the Ira- that are used in the Ukraine war and helping the
nians who saw them as selling the Palestinians Russians combat sanctions—geopolitical ana-
down the river. lysts will also look at what the new Saudi-Iranian
Israel, meanwhile, has grown increasingly situation might mean in terms of Riyadh poten-
angry that Iran has been allowed to move to the tially aligning more closely with Moscow. More
point where it might soon be viewed as a nuclear cooperation between Moscow, Beijing, Riyadh
threshold state. Hardly a day goes by without and Tehran could spell trouble for Western cap-
someone in the Israeli government warning that itals, and Ukraine.
Israel would not tolerate such a status and would As news of the agreement struck in Beijing
mount a military attack on Iranian nuclear facil- came through, there were many in Iran who—
ities should it look like becoming imminent. The possibly quite right—downplayed its signifi-
US is keeping its cards close to its chest on the cance, with some mentioning that perhaps it
matter, on the one hand advising all hope is not should be the Lebanese who are happiest of all as
lost in terms of attempts to get talks on reviving the deal might mean a bit more economic stabil-
the JCPOA back on track, but on the other hint- ity for Beirut, where the rivalry between Iranian
ing darkly that it would not stop short of joining and Saudi influences can be intense.
bombing missions aimed at Iran if that’s what it One analyst, who previously worked with the
would take to stop the Iranians from getting the Iranian foreign ministry and asked to remain
atomic bomb. anonymous, concluded that the “deal is not as
For the Saudis, the decision to strike up new big as it seems,” adding that “symbolically it may
relations with Iran, via talks brokered by China, sound big but strategically it doesn’t change how
signals to the world that Riyadh will pursue a for- Tehran acts in the region”.
eign policy independent of the West. A former diplomat with the Iranian foreign
Prince Saud was further quoted as saying ministry, who also asked for the withholding
in London: “China is our largest trading part- of his name, said: “The last Iranian leader who
ner. It is also the largest trading partner of most attempted to bridge the gap between Tehran and
countries. And that is a reality that we will have Riyadh was Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani [presi-
to deal with. China, for us, is an important and dent of Iran from 1989 to 1997] and there seems
valued partner in many areas. We have excellent to be no view that [current Supreme Leader of
working relationships across many sectors. But the Islamic Republic of Iran] Ayatollah [Ali]
we have said and repeat this, always, we will look Khamenei has changed his position on the Sunni
towards our own interests. And we will look for state.”™

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