Page 6 - MEOG Week 19 2021

MEOG PIPELINES & TRANSPORT MEOG

Turkish canal would impact trade, geopolitics

TURKEY TURKEY has signalled that it intends to start the sea. Following the admirals’ letter, Erdogan
work this year on its long-discussed Kanal Istan- responded that Turkey remains committed to
bul project, an artificial canal connecting the the Montreux Convention. But he also con-
David O’Byrne, Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara. The project firmed that the Turkish government sees the
has faced controversy within Turkey for its cost, planned canal as not subject to the convention’s
Eurasianet. environmental impact and potential for corrup- regulations.
tion. But its international implications could That admission could give credence to the
be substantial as well, threatening the delicate admirals’ warning that the canal would expand
regional military balance and impacting mari- access for military vessels into and out of the
time trade with the Caucasus and Central Asia. Black Sea. It could thus both upset the regional
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in early security balance and pit Ankara against its
April that a tender would be issued and prelimi- neighbours and other international players.
nary construction work would begin this year on The convention’s restrictions limit Nato
the 45-kilometre ship canal. members’ naval activities in the Black Sea, as well
Plans for the canal were first unveiled by as Russia’s ability to send large vessels from its
Erdogan, then prime minister, in 2011 in what he Black Sea fleet into the Mediterranean.
himself described as a “crazy project.” Its stated If the planned canal turns out not to be sub-
purpose is to create a safer transit route for oil ject to the Montreux Convention, it would allow
tankers to transport crude from the Black Sea Turkey to permit larger and more powerful naval
to global markets, which now traverse the nar- vessels, like aircraft carriers, in and out of the
row, occasionally treacherous Bosporus straits Black Sea, and for longer periods.
through the country’s largest city, Istanbul. Just how sensitive such a change would be was
Construction of the canal and associated infra- recently thrown into sharp relief by the height-
structure will have an estimated cost of more ened tensions resulting from Russia massing
than $20bn. The impact it will have on regional troops on the border of Ukraine and the United
security and trade is likely to be extensive, but States announcing in response that it would send
just how remains unclear. two warships into the Black Sea.
Most recently, the canal was the source of Although Washington subsequently back-
political turmoil when a group of 104 retired tracked and did not deploy the vessels, and
admirals published an open letter warning that Russia is pulling back its forces, the episode
it would undermine the Montreux Convention, illustrated the kind of leverage Ankara would
the treaty which since 1936 has governed passage have with those two powers, along with other
between the Aegean and Black seas and given states, if it were no longer bound by the Mon-
Turkey geopolitical heft in the region. treux Convention.
The convention stipulates that all merchant Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky
ships must be given free passage during peace- visited Istanbul amid the crisis on April 10. His
time through the “Turkish straits” – that is, the meeting with Erdogan took three hours rather
Bosporus through Istanbul and the Dardanelles than the originally scheduled one, and Erdo-
further to the southwest that separate the Sea of gan’s subsequent comments suggested that
Marmara from the Aegean Sea. It also restricts naval security was on the agenda: He called for a
the movement of military vessels, limiting them peaceful, diplomatic resolution to the rising ten-
to 15,000 tonnes or under, with additional curbs sions between Russia and Ukraine and declared
on the size and type of weaponry they can carry, that Turkey’s “primary goal is that the Black
and places a limit of 21 days in the Black Sea for Sea continues to be a sea of peace, serenity and
military vessels from countries not bordering cooperation.”

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 19 12•May•2021