Page 16 - AsianOil Annual Review 2021

AsianOil JULY AsianOil

China trims 2030 gas goal

The country’s energy planners have reduced gas’ projected
share of the 2030 primary energy mix from 15% to 12%

EAST ASIA THE Chinese government’s pledge to reach car- account for just 12% of the energy mix by 2030
bon neutrality by 2060 has forced the country’s but that demand itself would peak by 2035 before
WHAT: energy planners to rethink the role natural gas slowly declining.
Gas demand is now will play in the national energy mix over the next A senior director of CNPC’s planning depart-
projected to peak by four decades. ment, Zhu Xingshan, told delegates on July 24
2035. While the country will still depend on gas to that while gas would play a central role in help-
help wean itself off coal and crude oil, China is ing to reduce the country’s coal consumption, it
WHY: planning for a future where non-fossil fuels will would only account for 11% of national energy
The government is account for the vast majority of the country’s demand by 2060.
focused on ensuring its energy needs. China is aiming to reduce coal use from
carbon emissions peak As such, gas now is expected to account for 56.8% of energy consumption in 2020 to below
by 2030. 12% of national energy consumption by 2030, 56% this year, 44% by 2030 and 8% by 2060, the
down from the long-held ambition for the official Xinhua newswire quoted Zhu as saying.
WHAT NEXT: cleaner burning fuel to account for 15%. Petroleum, meanwhile, is expected to see its
Beijing wants the country While still perceived as the bridging fuel to a share of the energy mix fall to 18% by 2030 and
to be carbon neutral by greener economy, it is now clear that the coun- 6% in 2060.
2060. try’s mad dash for gas – which led to chronic Underwriting this fundamental shift will the
shortages just a few winters ago – is beginning rise of non-fossil fuels, which Zhu said would
to cool off. account for 26% of the national energy mix by
As the East Asian giant moves to overtake 2030 and 75% in 2060.
Japan as the world’s largest importer of LNG, This means that demand for gas is antici-
predicted by the International Energy Agency pated to peak by 2035, according to predictions
(IEA) to happen this year, long-term projections from state-owned oil and gas pipeline company
of reduced demand from the market’s biggest PipeChina.
buyer will not be welcome news for the world’s PipeChina executive Tang Shanhua told the
exporters. industry event that demand was likely to climb
from 326.2bn cubic metres in 2020 to 526 bcm
Revised figures by 2030, 650 bcm by 2035 and then retreat to 550
An industry conference heard from oil and bcm by 2050. Tang said gas demand for power
gas executives in July that not only would gas generation would account for most of that

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