Page 6 - GLNG Week 14 2022

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG

OIES weighs up impact of Western

oil firms’ exit from Russia

Russian oil and LNG prospects now look dimmer, as IOCs announce their departure or

commit to no new investments

PERFORMANCE RUSSIAN oil and gas production is unlikely to “Shell is withdrawing from the Sakhalin-2
be affected significantly in the short term by the project and the major shareholder, Gazprom,
WHAT: departure of Western oil majors, but their exit has limited experience of the LNG sector,” the
Many IOCs are intending could have an impact on long-term growth, the OIES said. “However, it has been a major part-
to leave Russia. OIES has said in a report. ner for the past 14 years and so will undoubt-
BP, Equinor, ExxonMobil and Shell have all edly have acquired adequate skills to keep
WHY: announced plans to leave Russia, although it production going in the absence of any major
They have done so remains to be seen how quickly they will be able problems.”
because of pressure over to find buyers for their equity positions. Others However, the institute notes that there is a risk
Moscow’s invasion of like OMV, TotalEnergies and Wintershall Dea of outages given the departure of one of the most
Ukraine. are remaining, but have pledged not to commit experienced international oil companies in the
to any new investments in the country. LNG sector, and Shell may be removing some
WHAT NEXT: As far as gas pipeline supply is concerned, the key technical equipment and software, which
Short term, Russian oil companies’ exit will have little impact on the could undermine medium-term efficiency and
and gas production is simple gas fields that deliver supplies to Europe, optimisation. It also seems unlikely Gazprom
unlikely to be affected, as Gazprom is capable of maintaining produc- will realise its long-standing plan to develop a
but in the long term, the tion at these sites on its own, the OIES said. A third liquefaction train at the site, or develop any
story is different. greater risk relates to the EU’s plan to reduce new LNG projects.
Russian gas supply by as much as two thirds by Russia’s other major LNG project is Yamal
the end of this year. LNG, which is run by Novatek, a company that
“has demonstrated its huge competence in oper-
LNG nuances ating major projects over the past five years.”
As for Russian LNG, the situation is “slightly What is more, its Western partner in the project,
more nuanced,” the OIES said. TotalEnergies, has not left.

The prospects for the
second and third trains
at Arctic LNG-2 look “a
little murkier” according
to the OIES.

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 14 08•April•2022