Page 31 - Russia OUTLOOK 2023

(NWF) to cover the budget deficit for a few years.

In January, before the start of the military conflict, deliveries to the EU
accounted for 85% of the total volume of Urals sea shipments – 5.16mn
tonnes out of 6mn tonnes, and in September – only 24% (1.78mn tonnes out
of 7.4mn tonnes).

India increased purchases of Urals from zero at the beginning of the year to
just over 40% by early autumn, while Turkey’s rose from less than 5% to 21%.
In January-September 2022, India increased its purchases of Russian oil (not
only Urals, but also the ESPO mixture transported to the port of Kozmino via
the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline) by eight times, up to 20.5mn tonnes,
according to Indian customs statistics.

According to Chinese customs, China purchased almost 72mn tonnes of
Russian oil over the same period, compared with 65.7mn tonnes in the same
period a year earlier.

India, China and Turkey increased their exports of Russian crude oil by 1.2mn
barrels during the summer per day, practically compensating for the reduction
in supplies from Russia to Europe.

However, by December 5, when the European embargo came into force,
Moscow had to redirect about 1.1mn barrels more. to other destinations, writes
the Oil & Gas Journal.

Nevertheless, the Russian authorities are unlikely to agree to reduce oil
production, as it is both costly and not so easy – it is necessary to mothball the
wells, says Pavel Verevkin, an investment strategist at Alor Broker. As a last

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