Page 34 - Russia OUTLOOK 2023

Nevertheless, the EU’s decision is very significant and will have major
repercussions for Russia’s role as a main oil exporter in the medium and
longer term.

In the meantime, however, Russia has continued to earn substantial oil
revenues. Crude oil exports from Russia’s western and Arctic ports have
remained strong. These ports historically served European consumers, and
whether flows can be redirected to non-EU countries will be pivotal in
determining the ultimate impact of sanctions.

Though there has been a small reduction in Russian exports to the EU, other
countries including India and China have increased Russian oil purchases,
more than compensating for the loss of the EU market. These countries were
buying Russian oil at a significant discount to global prices, starting at $35 but
falling to around $8 as volumes increased. As European demand disappears,
third countries will find it easier to negotiate discounts in 2023.

Russia also exports oil via pipeline to Europe and China, and via eastern ports.
These flows are still not subject to any planned sanctions, but only represent a
small share of total exports.

The embargo will target oil tankers carrying Russian crude and refined
products. Over 90% of the world’s oil tankers are insured via the International
Group of P&I Clubs, a London-based association of insurers. In agreement
with the UK, the EU also introduced in its sixth package of sanctions against
Russia, a ban on insurance for ships carrying Russian oil from the start of
2023.

EU operators will be prohibited from insuring and financing the transport, in

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