Page 40 - Russia OUTLOOK 2023

Other large trading partners not joining the sanctions regime included Turkey
and India. The member countries of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union
(EAEU) accounted for about 10% of Russia’s trade.

Russia’s foreign trade surplus almost doubled on the year to $269.8bn in
January-November thanks to high prices for key exports and a decrease of
the cost of imports, the central bank said on December 9.

Exports will continue to decline from $598bn in 2022 to $445bn in 2025, while
imports will climb from $331bn to $370bn over the same period, leaving Russia
with a healthy trade surplus.

The sanctions regime has been very leaky, as too many countries still
rely on Russia for essential inputs. The US maintains high volumes of
imported Russian fertilisers, metals and uranium, despite the sanctions for
Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, according to a report by Forbes.

As covered in detail by bne IntelliNews, although Russian metallurgy is
buckling under wartime economic realities, some Russian metals are deeply
embedded in global markets and are hard to sanction.

In July, the US exempted strategic metals such as palladium, rhodium, nickel
and titanium, as well as crude aluminium, from a hike of import tariffs.

The US imported $189mn of Russian rough palladium in October, the highest
monthly number since $230mn in February 2022. For 10M22 over $1bn of
palladium has been bought, with Russia accounting for over 30% of total US
palladium imports.

The US also imported Russian platinum worth $35mn and rhodium worth
$30m in October, up from zero and $7mn in the previous month respectively.

Shipments of Russian mineral fertilisers shipments to the US in October
increased by 10% month on month and 29% year on year to $183mn,
according to Forbes. Russian fertilisers’ exports to the US increased to
$1.36bn for 10M22 overall, already beating the $1.3bn for all of 2021.

40 Russia OUTLOOK 2022 www.intellinews.com