Page 10 - MEOG Week 31 2022

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

OPEC members boost July

output, agree small uptick

OPEC MIDDLE Eastern OPEC members increased OPEC+ signed off an increase of just 100,000 bpd
oil production in July, backing up the group’s for September despite Biden and other Western
promise to help ease oil market constraints. leaders’ best efforts to influence a greater hike.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group agreed to another The largest quota expansion will be for Russia
small rise in September targets during its meet- and Saudi, whose politically influenced quotas
ing this week. will maintain parity, climbing by 26,000 bpd for
According to a Bloomberg survey of Rystad the month to 11.03mn bpd, a level neither are
Energy, Kpler and Rapidan Energy and others, likely to produce at for a sustained period.
OPEC added 270,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil In the case of Russia, this is largely because of
output in July, with Saudi Arabia accounting for the impact of sanctions on markets for its crude,
around 180,000 bpd of the increase. while Riyadh is keen to hold back as much of its
This took its daily output for the month to remaining ‘spare capacity’ as possible.
10.78mn bpd, the highest level since it briefly Majority state-owned Saudi Aramco claims a
achieved a single-day record of 12.2mn bpd in maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) of 12mn
April 2020 and 53,000 bpd beneath its quota. bpd, which rises to around 12.2mn bpd with the
News of the latest uptick follows US President inclusion of Saudi’s share of the Partitioned Neu-
Joe Biden saying that he anticipated that Riyadh tral Zone (PNZ) that it shares with Kuwait. Iraq’s
would take “further steps” to ease pressure on quota will rise by 12,000 bpd to 4.663mn bpd.
supply/demand dynamics. Speaking to Reuters, Raad Alkadiri, manag-
Other OPEC members the UAE and Kuwait ing director for energy, climate and sustainability
also expanded output, with the former hitting at Eurasia Group, said that the increase “is so lit-
3.24mn bpd, outproducing its quota by 113,000 tle as to be meaningless. From a physical stand-
Targets (mbpd)
August 2022 September 2022 Increase (mbpd)
bpd. Abu Dhabi has long argued that its baseline point it is a marginal blip. As a political gesture
for OPEC+ agreements should be significantly [to Biden] it is almost insulting.”
OPEC
higher than its 3.168mn bpd level and state- Algeria 1.055 0.002
Meanwhile, Dr. Yousef Alshammari, CEO & 1.057
Angola
owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) head of oil research at CMarkits, said via social 1.529 0.004
1.525
continues to work on various projects that will media that the move provides “a partial offset to 0.325 0
0.325
Congo (Brazzaville)
Equatorial Guinea
0.127
raise its production capacity from the current shortfalls in production targets by many produc- 0.127 0
4.2mn bpd to 5mn bpd by 2027. ing members while maintaining spare capacity 0.187 0.001
Gabon
0.186
Efforts by the top producers countered reduc- at around 2.1mn bpd held mainly with Saudi
Exempt
Iran
Exempt
tions elsewhere, with Angola, Iran and Nigeria Arabia and UAE.” 4.651 4.663 0.012
Iraq
He added: “While this move was expected a
all seeing their output fall during July. Kuwait 2.811 2.818 0.007
However, as Saudi and the UAE in particular while ago, prices may take a partial effect due to
Exempt
Libya
Exempt
have consistently argued, there is little more they the pre-existing impact of inflation and fears of 1.83 0.004
Nigeria
1.826
can – or will – do to ease supply shortfalls, and recession.”™ 11.004 11.03 0.026
Saudi Arabia
UAE 3.179 3.186 0.007
Venezuela Exempt Exempt
Targets (mbpd) Total 26.689 26.752 0.063
August 2022 September 2022 Increase (mbpd)
OPEC Non-OPEC
Algeria 1.055 1.057 0.002 Azerbaijan 0.717 0.718 0.001
Angola 1.525 1.529 0.004 Bahrain 0.205 0.205 0
Congo (Brazzaville) 0.325 0.325 0 Brunei 0.102 0.102 0
Equatorial Guinea 0.127 0.127 0 Kazakhstan 1.706 1.71 0.004
Gabon 0.186 0.187 0.001 Malaysia 0.594 0.595 0.001
Iran Exempt Exempt Mexico 1.753 1.753 0
Iraq 4.651 4.663 0.012 Oman 0.881 0.883 0.002
Kuwait 2.811 2.818 0.007 Russia 11.004 11.03 0.026
Libya Exempt Exempt Sudan 0.075 0.075 0
Nigeria 1.826 1.83 0.004 South Sudan 0.13 0.13 0
Saudi Arabia 11.004 11.03 0.026 Total 17.167 17.201 0.034
UAE 3.179 3.186 0.007 OPEC+ 43.856 43.953 0.097
Venezuela Exempt Exempt
Total 26.689 26.752 0.063
Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan 0.717 0.718 0.001
Bahrain 0.205 0.205 0
Brunei 0.102 0.102 0
Kazakhstan 1.706 1.71 0.004
P10 Malaysia 0.594 0.595 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 31 03•August•2022
0.001
Mexico 1.753 1.753 0
Oman 0.881 0.883 0.002
Russia 11.004 11.03 0.026
Sudan 0.075 0.075 0
South Sudan 0.13 0.13 0
Total 17.167 17.201 0.034
OPEC+ 43.856 43.953 0.097