Page 107 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

Romania’s seasonally adjusted production index decreased in October
2021 by 0.9% m/m (-1.7% m/m for the core manufacturing industries)
compared to September, marking the fourth consecutive month of
negative performances.

The annual change in the index is less relevant, given the base effects,
but the seasonally adjusted index reveals a visible industrial slowdown
since March-April this year.

The automobile industry and oil refining (due to the accident at the
Petromidia refinery) were mainly responsible for the decline. The former
delivered in October an output that was 33% inferior to that delivered in
October 2019 (before the crisis), while the two-year contraction in the
case of the latter was 20%.

Overall, for the whole industry (mining and utilities included) the decline
compared to October 2019 was 9.6% (-4.9% per annum) and for the
manufacturing sector, it was 13% (-6.7% per annum).

In October 2021, industrial activity was dragged down by the
automobile industry (-3.0% m/m) that has particularly underperformed
recently due to the semiconductors crisis, but also by other industries
such as pharma production (-13.2% m/m).

In contrast, the oil refining industry recovered for the second month in a
row after Rompetrol’s Petromidia refinery resumed operations at the
end of September.

3.9.4 Energy & power

Romania’s energy market has a robust outlook and projects are being
drafted to address the rising energy prices and scarcity — but
regulation of the sector is key for unleashing its robust potential.

Local problems in Romania added to the tense situation of the
European energy markets in 2021. Both households and corporate
consumers were impacted by rising prices. Residential electricity
market liberalisation, effects of accelerated decarbonisation (rising price
of CO2 certificates) and supply disruptions across the whole of Europe

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