Page 5 - DMEA Week 07 2021

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA

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Facing the insurgency
He went on to say that establishing this safe zone and ground attacks.
was necessary because of civil conflict in Cabo Additionally, it said that analysts and mil-
Delgado. itary sources believed that the Islamist group
“The security situation is problematic because was running low on supplies. For example, it
jihadist groups got to within less than 10 km [of] quoted Calton Cadeado, a security researcher at
the site,” he was quoted as saying by Africanews. the Joaquim Chissano University in Maputo, as
He was referring to the fact that some of the areas saying that the Islamist group was not only run-
within the designated perimeter were the scene ning out of the ammunition and weapons it had
of heavy fighting between soldiers and members seized from military bases last year but was also
of Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo (ASWJ), an Islamist short on food, because its incursions had pre-
group that has links to the Islamic State (Daesh), vented many local farmers from planting and
last November and December. harvesting.
ASWJ is looking to seize control of Cabo Del- ‘Where do you get food if there are no people
gado, but Pouyanné said last week that he hoped producing it in the area at this point? There is
to see FADM re-establish control over the entire no war without supplies, without logistics,” he
province. “It is the government’s responsibility to remarked.
secure the area for this project to continue. With Cadeado also pointed to FADM’s recent vic-
the deployment of forces, the whole of Cabo Del- tories. “We are seeing a success of the govern-
gado Province will be secure,” he said. ment forces’ offensive strategy,” he told AFP. He
also said that relations between the armed forces
FADM gains momentum and residents of Cabo Delgado had “improved a
In the past, observers have expressed doubt lot” recently.
about FADM’s ability to regain the upper hand If conditions continue to improve along these
in Cabo Delgado, raising questions about the lines, Total may very well be able to resume work
armed forces’ capabilities and capacity to work on the Mozambique LNG project by the end
with residents of the remote northern province. of March, in line with Pouyanné’s predictions.
But within the last month, FADM has report- However, Cadeado advised caution, speculating
edly scored a number of successes against ASWJ. that ASWJ might shift from trying to gain terri-
Africanews noted last week that the number of tory and followers in Cabo Delgado to attacking
attacks by insurgents had been going down since the liquefaction plant and other gas facilities.
the beginning of the year. It also reported that “The worst scenario would be for them to scale
the armed forces had killed a number of sus- back wider attacks but strike the heart of the
pected ASWJ members in a series of air raids LNG complex,” he said. ™

Week 07 18•February•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P5