Page 4 - EurOil Week 50 2022

EurOil COMMENTARY EurOil

Erdogan backs idea to link

gas-rich Turkmenistan with

European energy market

The energy crisis in Europe could revive momentum behind a Trans-Caspian pipeline

TURKEY TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has “[Turkmenistan] is signaling that it won’t
backed the idea of a project that would link gas- get out of bed for anything less than the dec-
WHAT: rich Turkmenistan via Azerbaijan, Georgia and ades-old idea of a 30 bcma [billion cubic metres
Turkey’s leader has Turkey with the European energy market. per annum] pipeline. Building such a line, and
lent support behind a Speaking on December 14 at a summit in more importantly arranging the onward trans-
pipeline to flow gas from Turkmenistan with Turkmen President Serdar portation and sales in Turkey and EU, would
Turkmenistan to Europe Berdimuhamedov and Azerbaijani President be far more complicated than a simple connec-
via Azerbaijan and Turkey. Ilham Aliyev, Erdogan expressed support for a tor,” wrote John Roberts, a a senior nonresident
proposed pipeline that would link Turkmenistan fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy
WHY: with existing pipeline infrastructure that runs Center and Julian Bowden, a former economist
Europe has turned to the from Azerbaijan to Turkey, Turkish state-run with BP and a senior visiting research fellow with
Caspian region to find news service Anadolu Agency reported. the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES),
alternatives to Russian Europe has turned to Azerbaijan for more gas in an analysis published by the Atlantic Council.
gas supply. volumes to help wean it off Russian gas, with the They added: “Moreover, Turkmenistan
EU having decided Russia is an unreliable sup- would probably demand a long-term contract
WHAT NEXT: plier given how the Kremlin’s ‘gas tap’ has, in the structure which the EU itself cannot provide,
Analysts note the project bloc’s eyes, been used as an economic weapon and which European companies might be reluc-
still faces considerable since the West started arming Ukraine to oppose tant to sign. Overall, nothing could be completed
obstacles. the Russian invasion that began in late Febru- before 2030, by which time the EU should have
ary. It would also like to turn to Turkmenistan, resolved its current [energy] supply crisis and be
which boasts the fifth largest gas reserves in the far along the path to a renewables-based energy
world, but as things stand the Turkmens can only future.”
feed a modest amount of gas to Europe via the The authors of the analysis acknowledged in
Azerbaijan route, and that quite insignificant a footnote that they are on the advisory board
amount relies on gas swap arrangements with of a project to lay a 78-kilometre connector line
Iran, which has a pipeline running to Azerbaijan, between the Petronas-operated Magtymguly
working smoothly. field in Turkmenistan and gas-gathering facil-
A difficulty is that Turkmenistan, which ities operated by BP in Azerbaijan’s Azeri-Chi-
retains strong ties with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, rag-Gunashli oilfield.
has, according to two analysts, as bne IntelliNews From Erdogan’s comments as reported by
reported on December 14, told US diplomats Anadolu, it was not possible to ascertain what
that it is not interested in a modest connector kind of project the Turkish leader is advocating
project that would allow some substantial Turk- to source Turkmen gas for Europe. Erdogan has
men gas flows to cross the Caspian Sea to Azer- ambitions to turn Turkey into a gas hub that
baijan from where they could enter the pipeline would offer gas to buyers from various countries,
system that ultimately connects to Europe. including Russia. ™

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 50 16•December•2022