Page 6 - FSUOGM Week 12 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Replacing Russian gas endangers

climate change targets

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed the questions of decarbonisation and
energy security up to the top of the political agenda

EUROPE RUSSIA’S invasion of Ukraine has pushed fossil fuel dependence and close the window to
the questions of decarbonisation and energy 1.5C,” he said.
WHAT: security up to the top of the political agenda as “Countries could become so consumed by
The EU is scrambling to governments scramble to find alternatives to the immediate fossil fuel supply gap that they
phase out Russian gas. Russian oil and gas. neglect or knee-cap policies to cut fossil fuel use,”
The immediate reaction in the EU has been he went on. “This is madness. Addiction to fossil
WHY: to accelerate the energy transition by strengthen- fuels is mutually assured destruction.”
They have done so in the ing and extending its commitment to the Green The UN secretary-general said in a tweet that
wake of Russia's invasion Deal and to turn away from Russian gas and the war in Ukraine also showed how the global
of Ukraine. oil in a rapid U-turn that could not have been addiction to fossil fuels is placing energy secu-
expected before the war began on February 24. rity, climate action & the entire global economy
WHAT NEXT: The energy price shocks caused by the war at the mercy of geopolitics.
Some member states – wholesale gas prices have risen by 10 times Global emissions rose by 6% in 2021 to a
have hinted at extra coal – have concentrated minds on how to secure record high of 36.3bn, more than offsetting the
use. alternative energy supplies and how to replace pandemic-induced decline seen in 2020, the
imports of Russian oil and gas. International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
The EU imports 90% of its gas consump- Guterres warned: “If we continue with more
tion, with Russia providing around 45% of of the same, we can kiss 1.5C goodbye. Even 2C
those imports, in varying levels across Member may be out of reach. That would be catastrophe.”
States. Russia also accounts for around 25% of oil
imports and 45% of coal imports. Immediate concerns
Although the EU has stepped up its commit- As the war began on February 24, there were
ments to its Green Deal targets, it has warned immediate concerns that it could derail the fight
that these will come at considerable costs in against global warming and climate change as
terms of retail energy prices for consumers. energy prices soared.
Meanwhile, the immediate move away from Andrew Freedman of the think-tank Axios
Russian gas has caused governments to look at warned that the Paris Agreement temperature
nuclear power and LNG imports as one long- target was perilously close to slipping out of
term solution alongside renewables. Yet some reach, as climate change was no longer top of the
generators have not ruled out using coal as a political agenda.
short-term fix to fill energy gaps. US climate envoy John Kerry also
The race to find alternatives to Russian gas warned before war broke out that the world was
runs the risk of failing to meet, or delaying, the losing focus on emissions and mobilising green
COP26 climate change goals, particularly net investment, suggesting that it would easily fail to
zero by 2050 and global warming limits. keep up the pace required to meet 2050 targets.

Utter madness Coal’s return
UN Secretary-General António Guterres There have been hints from governments and
warned on March 21 that such short-term meas- companies that coal could be the fuel to replace
ures were “madness,” and could threaten the gas immediately.
1.5C target for global warming agreed at COP26, The IEA admitted that coal could be used to
as governments scramble to secure energy sup- displace large volumes of gas relatively quickly,
plies in the face of a 10-fold rise in gas prices and even if it was costly.
a doubling in oil prices. Poland, for example, had banked on gas
The Paris Agreement's commitment to limit to replace coal as it advanced its coal phase-
global warming to 1.5C is on “life support,” he out. Poland plans to reduce coal’s share in the
warned. mix to no more than 28% by 2040 and zero by
“As major economies pursue an ‘all-of-the- 2049. Any efforts to cut imports of gas would
above’ strategy to replace Russian fossil fuels, mean Poland would need to rethink its reliance
short-term measures might create long-term on the fuel, with coal, nuclear and imported

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