Page 7 - FSUOGM Week 12 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

LNG and pipeline gas all possible replacements. emissions growth in the coming years.
"If we want to do that in the short term, we're Elsewhere, Belgium could extend the work-
going to have to reconsider the plans we forged ing lives of some its nuclear reactors by 10
in the past. Looking at Poland's current legisla- years from 2025, alongside an increase in off-
tive situation, it's pushing us very clearly towards shore wind and solar.
more consumption of gas," Polish Climate Min-
ister Adam Guibourge-Czetwertynski told a Economic effect
meeting of EU environment ministers in Brus- Emissions could also suffer as global attention
sels, Reuters reported. moves from the green agenda towards stemming
"We're looking at that again to see how we can economic decline and dealing with geopolitics
reduce our dependence on gas during this tran- and security in a bid to end the war in Ukraine.
sitional period." For example, Oxford Economics cut its GDP
Coal has strong advocates in Poland. “We forecasts for CEE countries by an average of 1
have to start a real reactivation of coal extraction percentage point (pp) for 2022 and 0.5pp for
in Poland,” said former Polish Economy Minister 2023.
Jerzy Markowski. Meanwhile, the OECD warned that the
However, EU Green Deal Commissioner war will have major economic and social con-
Frans Timmermans said earlier in March that sequences on its members, although it offered
although it might make sense for coal-depend- hope by suggesting that boosting green energy
ent states such as like Poland and Germany to and diversifying away from Russian fossil fuels
keep burning coal for longer, rather than switch- was needed to soften the blow.
ing to natural gas before converting to renewable It added higher LNG imports and nuclear
energy, it would be “an incredibly stupid choice” power to its list of alternative energy sources,
to open new mines. alongside renewables and bioenergy, again spell-
RWE has also warned that coal was still an ing bad news for climate change and emissions
option, and that coal generation could replace reduction.
Russian gas
CEO Markus Krebber said that decommis- EU targets
sioned coal plants could be upgraded to reserve The EU has moved more cautiously than gov-
status, worth a total of 3.5 GW, of in order to ernments, and has as yet failed to adopt any
maintain security of energy supply in the winter EU-wide energy sanctions on the US or UK
of 2022-23 and in the following years. model, instead setting targets to reduce imports
Indeed, the state secretary at the German cli- via demand reduction. Member state them-
mate ministry, Patrick Graichen, said this week selves, especially in Central and Eastern Europe,
that Russian aggression on Ukraine has broken are divided on sanctions.
the narrative of gas as "a bridging technology," Before the war, the EU had instead set a target
which means that more coal could be burned in of ending dependence on Russian gas by 2030
the short term. by reducing imports of Russian gas by 100bn
Yet any role for coal would risk slowing down cubic metres per year – or two thirds of current
the pace of change required to boost renewables, imports.
reduce fossil fuel consumption and pare back However, in response to the war the EU on

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