Page 7 - MEOG Week 49 2021

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

OPEC+ follows through with increase

brushing off COVID-19 fears

OPEC+ RUSSIA and its OPEC+ allies agreed on Decem- this policy. The next meeting is scheduled for
ber 2 to release a further 400,000 barrels per day January 4.
(bpd) of oil onto the market in January, bank- Commenting on OPEC+’s decision, Wood
ing on continued robust demand even amid Mackenzie said: “In a highly uncertain situation,
concerns over a new coronavirus (COVID-19) the best option is to stick with the plan. That is
strain. exactly what OPEC+ has done.”
After months of growth, oil benchmarks have “The group’s members are in regular contact
declined sharply in recent weeks after the emer- and are monitoring the market situation closely,”
gence of the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 Wood Mackenzie continued. “As a result, they
in South Africa and its subsequent spread across can react swiftly when we start to get a better
the world. The strain’s discovery led various sense of the scale of the impact the Omicron
countries to ban flights from Africa, although variant of COVID-19 could have on the global
the World Health Organisation (WHO) and economy and demand.”
other health authorities have cautioned that it Meanwhile, Ian Simm, principal advisor at
is too soon to say whether Omicron can evade consultancy IGM Energy noted that the deci-
vaccines. sion shows “US political pressure and the threat
It was only weeks ago when US President Joe of further releases from the SPR have, for now,
Biden was urging OPEC+ to produce more oil paid off”.
than their quotas, in order to arrest the climb However, he said: “OPEC+ can and will act in
in fuel costs. The US on November 23 released its own and the market’s interests without prior
50mn barrels of oil from its strategic reserves in warning and the group is unlikely to be content
order to dampen prices – a move that was co-or- with price below $70 per barrel.”
dinated with China, India, South Korea, Japan Since falling on news of the Omicron strain,
and the UK. But while the realise did move oil benchmarks have made back some of their
prices, the impact was far outstripped by that of losses, with Brent rising to $72 per barrel on
the new strain. December 4. Rystad attributed this growth to
By the time that OPEC+’s monthly meet- the market downplaying the threat posed by the Baseline (mbpd)
Targets (mbpd)
December 2022 January 2022 Until end May 2022 May 2022 onwards
ing arrived on December 2, the question was new COVID-19 strain.
“Vaccine news helped pull prices back up but
whether the oil cartel would follow through on OPEC 0.962 0.972 1.057 1.057
Algeria
its plan to release 400,000 bpd onto the market if the market changes its mind and anticipates 1.528 1.528
1.392
1.406
Angola
or keep the supply offline. Under the current a worse Omicron impact, which comes on top 0.325
0.296
Congo (Brazzaville)
0.3
0.117
Equatorial Guinea
0.116
plan, the group will release the same amount of the severe increase in cases in Europe, price 0.127
0.172
0.187
0.17
Gabon
every month until April 2022, although they will sentiment will sour again,” the Norwegian con- Exempt Exempt
Iran
continue holding monthly meetings to discuss sultancy warned.™ 4.237 4.281 4.653 4.803
Iraq
Kuwait 2.558 2.585 2.809 2.959
Libya Exempt Exempt
Nigeria 1.666 1.683 1.829 1.829
Saudi Arabia 10.018 10.122 11.000 11.500
UAE 2.886 2.916 3.168 3.500
Venezuela Exempt Exempt
Targets (mbpd) Baseline (mbpd) Total Targets (mbpd) 24.554 Baseline (mbpd) 27.176
24.301
26.683
December 2022 January 2022 Until end May 2022 May 2022 onwards December 2022 January 2022 Until end May 2022 May 2022 onwards
Non-OPEC
OPEC OPEC
0.654
Azerbaijan
0.661
Algeria 0.962 0.972 1.057 1.057 Algeria 0.962 0.972 1.057 0.718
0.718
1.057
0.187
Bahrain
0.205
Angola 1.392 1.406 1.528 1.528 Angola 1.392 0.189 1.528 0.205
1.528
1.406
0.102
Congo (Brazzaville) 0.296 0.3 0.325 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.093 0.094 0.325 0.102
0.296
0.3
Brunei
Equatorial Guinea 0.116 0.117 0.127 Equatorial Guinea 0.116 0.117 0.127 1.709
Kazakhstan
1.572
1.709
1.556
Gabon 0.17 0.172 0.187 Gabon 0.542 0.172 0.187 0.595
0.17
Malaysia
0.548
0.595
Exempt
Exempt
Mexico
Iran Exempt Exempt Iran 1.753 1.753 Exempt Exempt
0.883
4.237
4.281
Oman
4.803
Iraq 4.237 4.281 4.653 4.803 Iraq 0.804 0.812 4.653 0.883
2.959
2.809
2.585
Russia
2.558
Kuwait 2.558 2.585 2.809 2.959 Kuwait 10.018 10.122 11.000 11.500
Libya Exempt Exempt Libya 0.069 0.069 Exempt Exempt
0.075
Sudan
0.075
Nigeria 1.666 1.683 1.829 1.829 Nigeria 1.666 1.683 1.829 0.130
0.119
South Sudan
1.829
0.118
0.130
11.000
15.794
15.917
Total
Saudi Arabia 10.018 10.122 11.000 11.500 Saudi Arabia 10.018 10.122 15.417 11.500
15.939
UAE 2.886 2.916 3.168 3.500 UAE 2.886 2.916 3.168 3.500
Venezuela Exempt Exempt Venezuela Exempt Exempt
Total 24.301 24.554 26.683 27.176 Total 24.301 24.554 26.683 27.176
Non-OPEC Non-OPEC
Azerbaijan 0.654 0.661 0.718 0.718 Azerbaijan 0.654 0.661 0.718 0.718
Bahrain 0.187 0.189 0.205 0.205 Bahrain 0.187 0.189 0.205 0.205
Brunei 0.093 0.094 0.102 0.102 Brunei 0.093 0.094 0.102 0.102
Kazakhstan 1.556 1.572 1.709 1.709 Kazakhstan 1.556 1.572 1.709 1.709
Malaysia 0.542 0.548 0.595 0.595 Malaysia 0.542 0.548 0.595 0.595
Mexico 1.753 1.753 Exempt Exempt Mexico 1.753 1.753 Exempt Exempt
Oman 0.804 0.812 0.883 0.883 Oman 0.804 0.812 0.883 0.883
Russia 10.018 10.122 11.000 11.500 Russia 10.018 10.122 11.000 11.500
P7
Sudan 0.069 0.069 0.075 0.075 Sudan 0.069 0.069 0.075 0.075
www. NEWSBASE .com
Week 49 08•December•2021 0.119 0.130 0.130 South Sudan 0.118 0.119 0.130 0.130
0.118
South Sudan
Total 15.794 15.939 15.417 15.917 Total 15.794 15.939 15.417 15.917