Page 6 - FSUOGM Week 25

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

political weapon. the Turkmen section had been completed,
There are ample gas resources to underpin although this proved to be false. It was only in
TAPI, with Turkmenistan hosting the world’s April last year that Russia’s Sberbank approved
fourth largest proven gas reserves, estimated by a letter of credit for a $219mn contract won
BP at 19.5 trillion cubic metres. But analysts have by a Russian pipe manufacturer, Chelpipe, to
raised doubts about Turkmenistan’s ability to supply the necessary pipes. Chelpipe then con-
manage the development of this gas and ensure firmed in January this year that those pipes had
stable supply to customers. While other large gas been delivered.
deposits in the Central Asian state are owned by Meanwhile, TAPI continued to dish out con-
Chinese concerns, the planned source of supply tracts. In December last year, Italian consult-
for TAPI, Galkynysh, is operated solely by Turk- ant RINA was hired to supervise construction,
men state-owned gas company Turkmengaz. while a Malaysian firm called Serba Dinamik
Then there are questions about whether there was picked to provide materials and equipment
is a sufficient market for TAPI’s gas in India and in February, according to Turkmen state media.
Pakistan. Since initially pledging support for Just how much work has taken place on the
the project, both countries have embarked on ground is hard to verify.
strategies to cover rising gas demand with LNG Despite the considerable challenges that TAPI
supplies. TAPI’s gas would have to compete with faces, Turkmenistan shows no sign of giving up
sea-bound imports, currently priced at a record on the project. The country relies heavily on gas
low. sales to China for its revenues, and TAPI is its
This explains why Pakistan has asked Turk- answer to diversifying its revenue base. Another
menistan for a lower gas price, according to Paki- plan to build a pipeline under the Caspian Sea
stani media reports. Islamabad has also asked to send Turkmen gas to Europe is seen as even
for the gas delivery point to be moved from the less realistic.
Turkmen-Afghan border to the Afghan-Paki- TAPI will continue, London-based PRISM
stani border. This would mean that Turkmeni- Political Risk Management says, “as long as Turk-
stan pays for transit and assumes responsibility men President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamme-
for supplies in restive Afghanistan – a significant dov remains in power, given his own personal
concession. political investment in the project.”
India said it was seeking a price revision from But there is still no progress resolving TAPI’s
Turkmenistan last year. greatest hurdle, security concerns in Afghani-
stan, despite the Turkmen government holding
Status on the ground regular contact with the Afghan government and
Even without financing in place, Turkmenistan even with the Taliban, according to PRISM.
has nevertheless pushed ahead with construc- TAPI remains a pipe dream, it seems, but one
tion of TAPI’s 200-km section in its territory. that Turkmenistan could continue believing in
TPLC went so far as to claim in 2018 that for many years to come. ™

A December 2015
ceremony marking
TAPI’s formal
inauguration.

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 25 24•June•2020