Page 4 - DMEA Week 22 2022

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA

Interim option being considered

as Iran responds to military moves

Hopes for a full return to the 2015 JCPOA appear to
be dwindling, but neither side wants to walk away.

MIDDLE EAST THERE are indications that Iran and the US are strengthening its economic and political ties
moving towards an acceptance of something with Moscow, Beijing and other governments
towards the “coma option” – or an interim agree- that would disregard Washington’s sanctions.
WHAT: ment – to break the current deadlock over how While clearly not optimal, it is preferable to both
Negotiators in Vienna to resurrect the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA. a sanctions-less deal and war with the US. This
appear to be re- NewsBase reported on the “coma option”, as would, however, require that Tehran temper
considering a short-term, envisaged by Trita Parsi, executive vice president its nuclear advances, which it might do since
interim agreement to of the Quincy Institute, last December. it no longer would press the US to re-join the
preserve the Iran nuclear Under this scenario, Parsi explained in an agreement.”
deal. essay for MSNBC, the agreement between Iran One obstacle to sealing an agreement to
and the major powers “would all but die, but the the re-establishment of the JCPOA is Tehran’s
WHY: parties would pretend that it is still alive to avoid demand that the US delist Iran’s Islamic Revolu-

Neither side looks keen the crisis that its official death would spur … tionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from its blacklist of
to walk out on the talks, Think of how Western powers have pretended foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs).
but there remains a long that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has As Paul Pillar, a senior fellow at Georgetown
way to go. been alive for the last decades”. University and former executive assistant to the
Parsi, author of “Losing an Enemy – Obama, director of US Central Intelligence, has stated:
WHAT NEXT: Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy”, reflected “This move [by former US president Donald
The status of the IRGC on the unattractive options if the nuclear deal Trump to put the IRGC on the list] was a clear
and affiliated groups diplomacy fails – such as a tightening of sanc- misuse of the FTO list. Of the 73 organisations
will be central to the tions on Tehran in an effort to persuade it not to currently on the list, 72 are – as creators of the list
success of any potential develop its nuclear knowhow to an unacceptable intended – non-state groups.
agreement. point in the military sphere, covert operations The IRGC is the only one that isn’t.” How-
in an attempt at thwarting the Iranian nuclear ever, with the US mid-term elections looming
development programme, or war – and con- in November, US President Joe Biden probably
cluded that the “coma option” might appeal to calculates that he can ill-afford to take the IRGC
all sides. off the list as his opponents would present the
If the JCPOA entered a “coma”, Tehran, added move to voters as weakness.
Parsi, “would keep its nuclear leverage while Iran, meanwhile, is reportedly very close to

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 22 02•June•2022