Page 6 - MEOG Week 36 2022

MEOG COMMENTARY MEOG

For Cypriot gas, the path to

Europe may run through Egypt

Establishing short subsea links with Egypt may be a faster and cheaper way to launch
exports than waiting for EastMed, which would be the world’s longest underwater pipeline

EAST MED CYPRUS has known for more than a decade amount of attention over the years and has
that it possesses substantial offshore natural gas attracted some high-profile support since it was
reserves. Between 2011 and 2019, international first mooted more than a decade ago. That cul-
WHAT: oil companies (IOCs) succeeded in finding three minated with the signing of a tri-partite accord
Cyprus, an EU member sizeable fields – Aphrodite, Glaucus and Calypso between Israel, Cyprus and Greece in early
state, has discovered – that contain at least 15-20 trillion cubic feet 2020, and the Israeli government approved the
more gas at a time when (425bn cubic metres) of gas. And just this sum- document later in the year, clearing the way for
the EU needs gas. mer, Eni (Italy) and TotalEnergies (France) construction to begin and gas to start flowing
have announced the discovery of another field, around 2025.
WHY: Cronos, that appears to hold another 2.5 trillion However, the scheme ran into trouble. The
An existing pipeline cubic feet (70.8 bcm) of gas. EU had designated EastMed a Project of Com-
transportation schemes The find ought to be good news for the EU. mon Interest (PCI) in 2013, but its interest began
has some serious These gas reserves are located in the coastal to flag after Ursula von der Leyen became pres-
drawbacks, including waters of an EU member state, and they have ident of the EC. (Following her accession to the
long timelines and high come to light at a time when the EU is facing post in December 2019, she began pressing for
budgets. difficult questions about how exactly it will meet the adoption of greener energy policies.) Then
energy demand during the upcoming heating in January 2022, the US government said that
WHAT NEXT: season. These questions are not easy to answer, it would no longer offer political support to
Cyprus could follow given that gas prices are very high and that Rus- the pipeline, as it viewed green energy projects
Israel’s example and seek sia will be delivering significantly less fuel than and cross-border electrical interconnections as
access to Egypt’s existing usual due to events in Ukraine. higher priorities in Europe.
gas infrastructure. Under these circumstances, some observ- In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
ers have suggested that the Cronos discovery these obstacles are not quite as intimidating as
could help rebuild support within the EU for they might once have been. Winter is coming,
the EastMed project, which envisioned the con- and Europe needs gas. Green energy is nice to
struction of a subsea pipeline connecting Israel’s have, but fossil fuel is better than freezing.
offshore zone to Greece via Cypriot territorial But is this argument strong enough to build
waters. support for EastMed? Maybe not.
The pipe was primarily designed to carry
gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field to the EastMed’s ongoing drawbacks
Greek market – whence it could be piped to Italy The problem with EastMed is that underwater
(via a proposed new underwater link) and/or pipelines are difficult to build. They are com-
the Balkans (via existing interconnectors), all of plicated feats of engineering, and they cost a
which have traditionally been reliant on Russian great deal of money to design, plan and install.
gas – at a rate of about 10 bcm per year. But it The equipment needed to execute such projects
could also carry Cypriot gas, since it was to pass properly and safely tends to be limited in supply
through Cypriot waters. and booked far in advance.
Indeed, now that the Cronos find has been As a result, subsea pipelines are often dif-
announced, there seems to be more reason than ficult to build quickly – and there is no reason
ever to think about loading Cypriot gas into such to believe that EastMed would be any different.
a pipeline. Altogether, Cyprus’ offshore zone Indeed, there are good reasons to believe that
appears to hold at least 17.5 trillion cubic feet this particular subsea pipeline might be more
(495.8 bcm) of gas, making its reserves compa- difficult to build than others.
rable to those of Leviathan, which holds about In no particular order, potential complicating
18.9 trillion cubic feet (535 bcm). factors include but are not limited to: the sheer
But there are problems with EastMed. length of the proposed 1,900-km route, which
would make EastMed the longest underwater
EastMed’s old obstacles pipeline in the world; the technical and geo-
The pipeline project has garnered a considerable logical complexity involved in laying pipe in

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 36 07•September•2022