Page 11 - MEOG Week 36 2022

MEOG POLICY & SECURITY MEOG

Macron and Borrell both say Iranian

JCPOA deal possible ‘within days’

IRAN BOTH French President Emmanuel Macron Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on The details of how that might work, or not
September 1 said they hoped an agreement on work, in practice remain obscure - Tehran and
reinstating the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA, Moscow, after all, have intensifying relations -
between Iran and major powers will be secured but analysts have assessed that Iran could within
within the coming days. six months ramp up production to add 2mn
“I hope that in the next few days the JCPOA barrels of oil per day to world crude supplies if a
will be concluded,” Macron said during his JCPOA mark II was put in place.
annual speech to ambassadors at the presiden- Bloomberg, meanwhile, has reported that
tial palace in Paris. French diplomats have privately worried that
“I am hoping that in the coming days we are reviving the deal will become unlikely as the
not going to lose this momentum [on finding an US midterm elections scheduled for November
agreement] and we can close the deal,” Borrell approach and the issue becomes increasingly
said after an informal meeting of the European sensitive.
bloc’s foreign ministers in Prague. “It’s clear The Intercept on August 31 reported that in
that there is a common ground, that we have an the US hawkish Democrats were ramping up a
agreement that takes into account, I think, every- campaign against a possible restored JCPOA.
one’s concerns,” he added. Iran’s arch-rival Israel has also this week
During a visit to Moscow on August 31, Ira- stepped up its attempts to block a revival of the
nian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdolla- deal.
hian repeated a previous statement that Iran was Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on August
carefully reviewing a Washington response to a 31 spoke by telephone with US President Joe
proposed final text for the return of the JCPOA Biden after visits were paid to Washington by
drafted by the European Union. He added, with- Israel’s defence minister and national security
out elaborating: “We need stronger guarantees adviser. The Israeli spy chief is due to visit next
from the other party [the US] to have a sustain- week.
able deal.” Lapid and Biden “spoke at length about the
However, there are growing reports of sound- negotiations on a nuclear agreement, and the
ings taken in Iran that indicate officials have con- various efforts to stop Iran’s progress towards
cluded that they need a revived JCPOA - which a nuclear weapon”, a statement from the Israeli
would lift heavy US economic sanctions on Teh- premier’s office said, as cited by AFP. Lapid
ran in return for a curbing of Iran’s nuclear devel- told journalists last week that if the JCPOA was
opment programme to ensure it stays within the brought back it “ would give Iran $100 billion a
civilian sphere - to help address economic stress year” that would be used by Iran-backed militant
among Iranians that by now is causing street pro- groups Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
tests on an almost daily basis. The Biden administration has made it clear it
A big attraction for the West in returning is under no illusions about Iran but at the same
to the JCPOA is that it would open up world time it says that former US president Donald
markets to Iranian oil, meaning Tehran would Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach to the
have the potential to ease the crude oil supply Islamic Republic, based on swingeing sanctions,
stress increasingly felt by countries attempting has achieved nothing other than bringing Tehran
to turn their backs on Russian oil in response to closer to the ability to build a nuclear bomb.™

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