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Vietnam coal imports

to peak by mid-2030s

VIETNAM VIETNAM’S Ministry of Industry and Trade nationwide will only just satisfy forecast demand
(MoIT) has said that coal imports by Hanoi will of between 94 and 97mn tpy by the mid-2020s;
continue to rise until at least the year 2030, before a figure then predicted to peak at around 127mn
peaking sometime before 2035, at between 50 tpy by 2030.
and 83mn tonnes per year (tpy). Of concern to regional analysts, however, is
The increase in the short term is being seen the lack of any wider reference to coal in com-
as an easy way to meet rising domestic demand ments made in the Energy Outlook Report
for power in the nation of 99.7mn, as the move to (EOR) just over a month ago by current MoIT
more renewables investment takes shape, albeit vice-minister Dang Hoang An.
relatively slowly. “The EOR is developed with good data
At present, renewables generation in Viet- sources, using advanced models to calculate
nam comes primarily from hydroelectric facil- development scenarios for the power sector in
ities. Wind and solar power when combined, particular and the energy sector in general, pro-
despite seeing significant investment in recent viding valuable information about short-term
years, is still only measured in single figures in and long-term energy and power system devel-
the overall national power mix. opment, in conformity with the Vietnamese
The rise in coal use over the next 12 years government’s direction for sustainable energy
will initially see coal imports reaching as high as development along with environmental protec-
83mn tpy, according to the MoIT, soon thereaf- tion and energy security”, the minister said at the
ter dropping to around 35mn tpy until around EOR launch.
the mid-2040s. “Vietnam has already come a long way with
In announcing the increase in coal imports, its green transition, which Prime Minister
no mention was made of the June launch of Viet- Pham Minh Chinh’s net-zero pledge at COP26
nam’s Energy Outlook Report (EOR). in Glasgow illustrates. With the Vietnam Energy
Put in place by Vietnam’s Electricity and Outlook Report 2021, developed in a close col-
Renewable Energy Authority in conjunction laboration with the Vietnamese Energy Author-
with the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) and the ities, we aim to display how this target can be
Embassy of Denmark, the report indicates that reached in time and at the lowest cost possible
the nation could attain net zero in greenhouse to the benefit of the country, its people and, not
gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. least, the global climate” DEA director-general
The sudden upswing in coal imports also Kristoffer Bottzauw added.
appears to run counter to assurances given by According to the MoIT, in releasing data on
Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the anticipated increase in coal imports, it is now
the COP26 in Glasgow less than a year ago. only after 2040 that energy demand will decrease
At present, data released by the MoIT shows as Vietnam moves to meet its net-zero goals.
that coal use across Vietnam rose from almost At the same time though, the MoIT also
28mn tonnes in 2011 to 38.8mn tonnes within stated that industries producing fertilisers and
four years, before reaching over 53.5mn tonnes chemicals, both significant export industries
last year. for the Vietnamese government, will even be
Almost all of this coal is thought to contrib- encouraged to expand, in the process leading
ute directly to electricity generation rather than to so-called domestic energy security at the
being directed to industry. national level by relying on locally mined coal.™
Added to this, domestic mining of coal

Week 33 17•August•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P9