Page 4 - FSUOGM Week 45 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

The ins and outs of Nord

Stream 2's certification

Exactly when Nord Stream 2 will be up and running is still unclear, but there

are three main scenarios

EUROPE THE certification process at Russia’s embattled the NS2 operator that it could start flowing gas
Nord Stream 2 (NS2) could drag into the sum- before its certification process is completed and
WHAT: mer of next year, although German regulators continue to do so on a time-limited basis to alle-
Nord Stream 2 is awaiting could let the pipeline begin flowing gas before viate a supply shortage in Europe.”
certification before it can the procedure is completed, given the energy cri- Alternatively, the certification process could
launch gas flow. sis unfolding in Europe, according to a report by be fast-tracked, resulting in a swift start to gas
the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES). flow. Yafimava said this was a possible but less
WHY: Germany’s energy regulator BNetzA has until likely scenario, as it could leave either BNetzA
In light of the crisis, January next year to decide whether to certify or the European Commission open to criticism
the pipeline may be NS2’s operator as complying with EU energy that the certification process was not sufficiently
permitted to start law. The European Commission then has up to thorough.
sending gas before the two months to review draft BNetzA’s decision, Some countries consulting in the process
certification process is or four months if it decides it needs to consult are vocal opponents of Nord Stream 2, most
complete. the Agency for Cooperation of European Reg- notably Poland. Some of that criticism might be
ulators, or Germany or other interested parties. deflected, though, by the fact that NS2 AG began
WHAT NEXT: After that, BNetzA has another two months to submitting its first certification documents back
An OIES expects believes issue a final certification process. in June, giving BNetzA additional time before
this is the most likely As such, the entire process could continue the last documents arrived in September.
scenario, but there is a until July 2022, Katja Yafimava, senior research
risk that the pipeline may fellow at OIES, argues. As she notes, certification Compliance with EU rules
not start operating until is normally an essential prerequisite for a pipe- NS2’s operator needs to be certified as compli-
next summer. line to start up, and if NS2 were to start flowing ant with the EU’s Third Energy Package rules on
gas before the process is complete, its operator unbundling, third-party access and tariff trans-
could face fines for an administrative offence. parency. Pipelines to and from third countries
“Therefore, under normal circumstances, were not subject to EU law until 2019, when the
NS2 AG would start flowing gas only after the bloc amended its gas directive in a move widely
certification process has been completed and seen as targeted against NS2. The biggest obsta-
certification has been granted,” Yafimava argues. cle here is the issue of unbundling. NS2 is wholly
“However, from the gas supply perspective the owned by a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom,
winter of 2021/22 looks anything but normal. which will also supply 100% of the gas that runs
It is conceivable that BNetzA could indicate to through it.

P4 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 45 10•November•2021