Page 4 - FSUOGM Week 47 2021

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

Belarus in no position to threaten

Europe on energy

Belarus is in no position to make threats given its political dependency on Moscow

BELARUS OIL markets were bullish on November 18 foreign ministry has dismissed accusations
after Belarus’ oil pipeline operator temporarily that Belarus is engineering the border crisis as
WHAT: restricted oil flows to Poland, amid an escalating “absurd.” Minsk has vowed to retaliate against
Belarus has disrupted oil migrant crisis on the countries’ shared border. any EU sanctions.
transit via Druzhba for The official reason for the disruption was Relations between Belarus and the EU col-
maintenance, and has unscheduled maintenance, Polish pipeline oper- lapsed after Lukashenko declared victory in
made threats to cut gas ator PERN Group said on November 18, noting presidential elections last year that have been
supplies via Yamal- it had been informed by Russia’s Transneft pipe- widely rejected as neither free nor fair. Brussels
Europe as well. line monopoly that “oil pumping to Poland and has already imposed sanctions on Belarus’ val-
Germany will be slightly reduced.” uable exports of oil products and potash, but
WHY: “The monthly volume of raw material will be the country is understood to be diverting some
Belarus is a key route fulfilled as expected. The Polish oil system is fully shipments via Russian territory to get around the
for Russian oil and gas secured and operates continuously,” it said. ban.
heading to Europe. Russian oil flows to Europe via a network of
pipelines that run through Belarus and other What next?
WHAT NEXT: Eastern European countries, collectively known Regardless of the real reasons for the disrup-
Belarus is politically as the Druzhba. Small-scale disruptions are rel- tion at Druzhba, the Lukashenko regime is
dependent on Moscow atively common – as recently as July supplies unlikely to take any drastic steps to curtail Rus-
and therefore has little were limited owing to modernisation work tak- sian energy supplies that flow through Belarus
power to meddle with ing place at a refinery in Germany. In June, oil to Europe.
Russian energy exports. pumping was suspended in Slovakia as a result When threatening to cut gas transit via
of pipeline repairs. Yamal-Europe, Lukashenko claimed that Bela-
The impact of a full-scale disruption was rus was “heating [Europe’s] homes, but the
demonstrated in 2019, when millions of barrels reality is that this is Russia’s role, and Moscow
of Russian oil that were pumped into the system would retaliate against Minsk if it tried to disrupt
were found to have been contaminated with supplies. The strongman leader likely sought to
organic chlorides, chemicals used for oil extrac- unnerve Europe at a time when the continent’s
tion that can cause damage to refining equip- gas market is already extremely tight.
ment if not removed. Russia stands accused of curtailing gas sup-
The latest issue comes just days after Belaru- ply to Europe, although exactly how much gas
sian President Alexander Lukashenko threat- it has to spare is unclear. There are also con-
ened to cut off gas flow via the Yamal-Europe straints with LNG supply, as premium prices in
pipeline, causing gas prices in Europe to spike. Asia have led to more trade being diverted there.
It has therefore raised suspicions that the down- Meanwhile, Algeria has halted gas supply to
time is connected with the broader dispute Spain via Morocco over a long-standing dispute
between Belarus and Europe. over territory with its North African neighbour.
The Belarusian government stands accused of At the same time, gas storage levels in Europe
effectively using migrants as a political weapon. are falling at a concerning rate, while demand
Reports claim it has been flying in thousands has been robust as a result of cold weather, eco-
of migrants from war-torn areas of the Middle nomic recovery and a high carbon price, which
East and sending them to its western border, has encouraged more coal-to-gas switching in
putting pressure on Polish border controls. The the power sector.
EU decided on November 15 to impose new Yet despite these circumstances, Belarus is in
sanctions against Belarus, and the measures no position to exert real pressure on the EU in
should be finalised in the coming days. The EU’s the energy sector or in any other area. Described
top diplomat Josep Borrel said this fifth package as the last dictator in Europe, Lukashenko’s
of sanctions had been agreed with bloc foreign strategy for power over the years and securing
ministers and would target airlines, travel agen- concessions both from Russia and the West has
cies and individuals involved in “this illegal push been playing the two sides against each other.
of migrants.” Since the last presidential election, this strategy
Poland estimates that there have been more is no longer possible, as the EU no longer rec-
than 5,000 irregular attempts to cross its bor- ognises Lukashenko as the legitimate leader of
der so far this month, although the Belarusian Belarus.™

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