Page 28 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

According to the balance sheet published by the Central Bank of
Azerbaijan, the foreign trade turnover for the first nine months of 2021
amounted to $21.4bn, a surplus of $11bn in the oil and gas sector, with
a deficit of $4.6bn in the non-oil sector, resulting in a surplus of $6.4bn.
During the reporting period, Azerbaijan had trade relations with 183
countries. 14% of foreign trade was with CIS member states and 86%
with other foreign countries.

During that period, the country's exports of goods increased by
$13.9bn. This is 42.3% more than 2020. The oil and gas industry
accounted for $12.2bn in exports, or 88%. Another interesting point
here is that 93% of the revenue from the sale of oil alone came from
crude oil. The share of oil refinery products here is only 7%. In other
words, for every 100 manats (~$58) that Azerbaijan receives from oil,
93 manats come from crude oil revenues, and only 7 manats from oil
products.

As for imports, 48% of imports are consumer goods. The share of food
in total imports is 16%. Over the past year, imports of most
pharmaceutical products (1.5 times), perfumes and cosmetics have
increased

The deficit in the accounts decreased by about $500mn and fell to
$1.517bn. This decrease is mainly due to the reduction of the negative
balance in the "other investments" section by about $900mn. There was
a deficit of $1.4bn in this balance of payments in 2020; the figure fell to
$536mn in 2021.

2.1.2 Inflation and monetary policy

According to the State Statistics Committee, the consumer price index
in November increased by 1.5% compared to October and 11.1 percent
compared to November 2020. The consumer price index in
January-November 2021 compared to January-November 2020 rose by
6.2%, including 7.4% for food, beverages and tobacco products, 4.8%
for non-food products, and paid services to the population increased by
5.4%.

The consumer price index for food, beverages and tobacco products
increased by 1.9% in November 2021, compared to October and 14.9%
compared to November 2020.

The consumer price index for non-food products in November 2020
increased by 0.5% compared to October, and by 7.1% compared to
November 2020. In November 2021, compared to October, the prices of
non-food products increased more than the prices of spare parts for
cars, glassware, tableware, furniture, televisions, clothes and shoes,
and the decrease was mainly due to the prices of cut boards and
electronic tablets. There were no significant changes in the prices of
other non-food products.

The government expects annual inflation for 2022 at 4-5%. The Central
Bank said that the increase in the cost of imported goods due to rising
prices in world commodity markets and partner countries, problems in
the production and logistics chain due to the pandemic, faster

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