Page 23 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

Official FX reserves (EUR bn) ?

Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 94.4 91.3 87.6 90.3 102.3 ?

EUR/LC (avg) 531.9 545.1 570.6 537.9 558.4 597.3 ?

USD/LC (avg) 480.5 482.7 483.0 480.4 489.0 504.4 ?

Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH

2.1.1 GDP growth

Armenia’s quarterly GDP in Q3 2021 was AMD1.9tn ($3.9bn),
according to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia
(Armstat). This represented a growth of 2.7% y/y and 25.2% q/q, over
Q2 2021’s total of AMD1.576tn.

In sectoral terms, the highest growth rates in Q3 2021 were by the
hotels and catering sector, which grew 56.6% y/y and 37.7% q/q. Other
major growth sectors included transportation and warehousing (up
32.2% y/y and 9.1% q/q) and health and social services (up 27.5% y/y,
7.8% q/q).

The largest sector of the economy overall in Q3 2021 was agriculture,
forestry and fisheries, at 14.9% of total quarterly GDP (AMD282bn).
The second largest sector was manufacturing (11.5% of the total,
AMD218bn), while the third largest was wholesale and retail trade and
vehicle repair (10.8%, AMD205bn).

The Armenian government’s programme for the years 2022-2026
places growth in 2022 at 7% of GDP. In a December estimate, the
Central Bank of Armenia predicted 5.3% growth in 2022. The EBRD
forecasts 5% GDP growth for Armenia in 2022, while the IMF expects
4.5% growth.

23 Small Stans & South Caucasus Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com