Page 27 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

Source: IMF Data Mapper, Azerbaijan State Statistics Agency

2.1.1 GDP growth

Azerbaijan’s GDP amounted to AZN80bn (~€42bn) in the timeframe of
January-November, which means it was 5.3% more than in November
2020, according to the State Statistical Committee.

The added value in the non-oil sector rose by 6.4%; in the oil and gas
sector, by 2.7%. In the structure of GDP, 41.6% was formed in industry,
10.1% in trade and repair of vehicles, 7% in transport and warehousing,
4.9% is construction, 6.4% is agriculture, forestry and fishing, 1.8% is
information and communication, 1.2% is tourist accommodation and
public catering, 18.2% are other sectors. Net taxes on products and
imports amounted to 8.8% of GDP. GDP per capita amounted to
AZN8,055 (~€4,195).

According to the latest macroeconomic forecasts of the Ministry of
Economy of Azerbaijan based on the average price of $50 per barrel,
Azerbaijan's GDP was expected to grow by 5.1% in 2021. The indicator
reflected in the draft law “On the State Budget of the Republic of
Azerbaijan for 2022” forecasted a 6% increase in non-oil GDP if these
conditions were justified.

For 2022, real GDP growth is projected at 3.9% by the government and
is expected to reach AZN86.6bn by the end of the year. Non-oil GDP is
expected to increase by 4.9%.

2.1.2 External environment

Azerbaijan remains dependent on oil and gas with aspirations to
diversify into non-fossil energy and agriculture. In fact, without oil and
gas, Azerbaijan's foreign trade deficit for the first nine months of 2021
would amount to $4.6bn.

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