Page 5 - DMEA Week 50 2020

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA

Source: Anadarko.

More conflict likely in Harare to fret about the possibility that the
Meanwhile, the conflict is hardly over. conflict may also spread across Mozambique’s
Despite its recovery of Mute and other sites, north-western border into Zimbabwe. They have
FADM has not been able to deprive of ASWJ of also led hundreds of thousands of people to flee
control over the entirety of the Cabo Delgado Cabo Delgado Province in the hope of escaping
province. This is not likely to change any time the conflict. Valentin Tapsoba, the head of south-
soon, especially since Mozambique’s military ern African operations at the United Nations
forces are not trained well and are not respected High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), said
enough in Cabo Delgado to win much sympathy earlier this week that the number of refugees
from the local population now stood at 424,000 and was likely to rise.
At the same time, the Islamist group has
remained determined to seize as much territory Seeking a solution
as possible – and has shown that it is willing to Tapsoba told Reuters he believed that Mozam-
inflict severe violence to achieve its aims. Indeed, bique ought to have help from neighbouring
some observers believe more attacks are likely states in addressing the insurgency and all of the
within Mozambique in the short term. disruptions that have emerged from it. “This is
For example, Janes, a UK-based military a situation starting in one country, but if all the
intelligence consultancy, attached a pessimistic countries don’t get their act together to tackle
headline – “Growing confidence of ASWJ mili- it and wait too long, it could spread within the
tants presages increasingly sophisticated attacks sub-region,” he was quoted as saying by the news
over expanded area of operations in Mozam- agency.
bique’s Cabo Delgado” – to a comment published Mozambique has made some efforts to secure
online on December 14. It did so shortly after assistance from nearby states. For example, in
AFP quoted unnamed military sources as say- mid-November, it signed an agreement with
ing that the Islamist group might mount another Tanzania on joint operations against ASWJ. Later
campaign soon. in the same month, the Mozambican Minister of
This means that Total and other IOCs have Defence met with senior officials from five mem-
good reasons to remain worried about security ber states of the Southern African Development
– and not just the security of their own construc- Community (SADC) to discuss responses to the
tion sites and facilities, but also the security of Islamist group’s attacks. Mozambican officials
ports, roads and other infrastructure used to then held additional talks with their counter-
support their gas projects. parts from Botswana, South Africa, Tanzania
and Zimbabwe earlier this week.
A regional problem So far, though, these discussions have not led
The companies may also wish to prepare for the to the signing of any agreements or the formula-
possibility of more widespread instability in East tion of any strategies. As a result, there is a very
Africa. real chance that the conflict will not only con-
Mozambique is not the only country in the tinue but worsen to the point where it threatens
region to be affected by ASWJ’s attacks, which to hamper the activities of the companies that
are meant to bring the whole region under hope to start extracting and processing gas from
the control of an Islamist government loyal to fields located offshore Mozambique within the
Islamic State. Several hundred members of the next few years. Total and other IOCs ought to
group staged an attack on Kitaya, a village in start considering, then, how to respond if their
Tanzania’s southern Mtwara region, in October projects – Mozambique, Rovuma LNG and
of this year. Since then, it has claimed responsi- Coral South LNG, which are expected to require
bility for three more attacks in the same region. up to $60bn worth of investments – are dis-
Meanwhile, recent events have led officials rupted by ASWJ attacks. ™

Week 50 17•December•2020 www. NEWSBASE .com P5