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WoodMac: Bolivia gas production

could drop more than 70% by 2030

BOLIVIA is on track to see natural gas produc- this supply, and we may see Bolivia become an
tion sink more than 70% by the end of the dec- importer,” she explained.
ade, according to Wood Mackenzie. Bolivia cannot reverse this long-term trend
The consultancy has said in a new report that without investing in exploration, Wood Mac-
it expects the South American country’s gas kenzie’s report said. However, its recent explora-
output to sink from 1.4bn cubic feet (39.65bn tion campaigns have not been overly successful,
cubic metres) per day in 2022 to 400mn cubic the consultancy stated. In 2021, noted Kuy Hun
feet (11.3 mcm) per day in 2030. This represents Koh Yoo, another Wood Mackenzie analyst for
a decline of 71.43%. Latin America’s upstream sector, “the Boliv-
According to Amanda Bandeira, a Wood ian government released an exploration plan,
Mackenzie analyst for Latin America’s upstream yet only three of the 20 wells announced were
sector, this downswing is in line with long-term drilled and they have been dry.”
trends, though the gas sector did show brief Yoo also described the country’s investment
signs of recovery after the initial coronavirus climate as less than ideal, saying: “Bolivia’s fis-
(COVID-19) outbreak in 2020. “Production in cal terms are among the least competitive in the
Bolivia has been in a steady decline since 2015, Latin America region. These have done little to
with a slight increase in 2021,” she said. “How- attract capital from outside the country for more
ever, with few new discoveries and little supply exploration contracts.”
left in mature fields, production will begin to The projected decline in gas exports has the
decline at a much more rapid pace.” potential to inflict serious harm on the Boliv-
Bandeira also pointed out that the gas indus- ian economy. According to data from the US
try was becoming more focused on domestic International Trade Administration (ITA),
consumption. “Currently, domestic demand gas was the country’s third-largest export in
consumes about 30% of the total supply. By 2021, accounting for 21.3% or $2.3643bn out of
2030, domestic demand will likely outstrip $11.1bn in total exports. ™

Bolivia’s gas fields have seen production levels decline in recent years (Image: YPFB)

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